Storylines to Watch at UFC 296

Colby Covington finds himself in a race against time.

A few months shy of his 36th birthday and now 20 bouts into his professional career, the MMA Masters export will challenge Leon Edwards for the undisputed Ultimate Fighting Championship welterweight crown in the UFC 296 main event on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Covington has alternated wins and losses in each of his past four outings. He last appeared at UFC 272, where he took a five-round unanimous decision from Jorge Masvidal on March 5, 2022—nearly 700 days ago. Inactivity has become an inescapable part of the Covington narrative, as he has not fought more than once in a calendar year since 2019. Can he back up the all the hubris and complete his improbable swim upstream against negative public opinion?

Edwards has a say-so in the matter. The 32-year-old Team Renegade star put his three-fight rivalry with Kamaru Usman in the rearview mirror on March 18, when he outpointed “The Nigerian Nightmare” to a majority decision, improved to 2-1 in their head-to-head series and retained his welterweight championship. Edwards has not tasted defeat in almost nine years but only now seems to be getting the recognition he deserves.

The Edwards-Covington showdown and its resulting fallout at 170 pounds is but one storyline to watch at UFC 296. Here are four more:

Role Reversal

Alexandre Pantoja thrived on the chase. Now he must prove he can thrive while being chased. Pantoja defends his undisputed flyweight championship for the first time when he rematches Brandon Royval in the five-round co-headliner. The American Top Team rep subdued Royval with a second-round rear-naked choke at UFC on ESPN 29 in August 2021. Stakes are much higher for their second encounter. Pantoja, 33, takes his first turn as champion on the heels of four consecutive victories. He last fought on July 8, when he dethroned Brandon Moreno by split decision at UFC 290 to become the fifth flyweight titleholder in UFC history. Royval, meanwhile, rides a three-fight winning streak into the most significant opportunity of his career. A first-round knockout of Matheus Nicolau at UFC on ESPN 44 in April nailed down his title shot. Can Pantoja handle the pressure of being the hunted?

Generational Conflict

Shavkat Rakhmonov could be closing in on a title shot. The undefeated Kill Cliff Fight Club thoroughbred puts his perfect 17-0 record on the line against Stephen Thompson in a three-round welterweight showcase that figures to conclude with the two men headed in opposite directions. Rakhmonov, 29, has been nothing short of a revelation since he joined the UFC roster in 2020, winning all five of his fights inside the distance. He last suited up at UFC 285, where he submitted Geoff Neal with a rear-naked choke in the third round of their March 4 encounter. On the other side of the equation, Thompson brings experience and a big-fight pedigree to the dance, but the South Carolina-based karateka turns 41 in a matter of weeks. Questions abound regarding whether or not “Wonderboy” still has what it takes to compete with a next-generation welterweight contender. Will Rakhmonov take another step toward contention at his expense?

The Dismal Tide

Tides often shift unexpectedly in mixed martial arts. Ask Tony Ferguson. Once front and center as a perennial contender at 155 pounds, “El Cucuy” has fallen on the hardest of times and enters his lightweight attraction opposite Paddy Pimblett burdened by a career-worst six-fight losing streak. Some 1,650 days now separate Ferguson from his most recent victory—a second-round technical knockout of Donald Cerrone at UFC 238 on June 8, 2019—and he looks more and more like a shell of his former self. At this point, the 39-year-old Oxnard, California, seems destined to go down as a tragic figure in MMA history, having never fought for the undisputed title he long coveted. Pimblett, meanwhile, would like nothing more than to use Ferguson as his latest steppingstone. A former Cage Warriors Fighting Championship titleholder, the impetuous Englishman has rattled off six straight victories and holds a 4-0 record inside the Octagon. Does this mark the end of the road for Ferguson?

Brute Force

Intrigue surrounds Shamil Gaziev. A 33-year-old late bloomer who heads into his promotional debut with an unblemished resume, the KHK MMA Team heavyweight confronts Martin Buday as part of the beefed-up undercard. Gaziev—who did not test the professional MMA waters until after he turned 30—punched his ticket to the UFC on Dana White’s Contender Series, as he took care of Greg Velasco with a rear-naked choke in the first round of their Sept. 19 confrontation. He now boasts eight first-round finishes among his 11 career victories, five of the sub-minute variety, and could at least infuse some life into a division that seems to be in perpetual need of it. Buday, meanwhile, does not figure to provide anything resembling a soft landing. The monstrous 6-foot-5 Slovakian steps up to the plate on a 12-fight winning streak that includes a 4-0 mark in the UFC. Exactly what does the UFC have on its hands with Gaziev?