Prime Picks: UFC on ESPN 30 ‘Barboza vs. Chikadze’

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The Ultimate Fighting Championship for reasons known only to the powers that be is jamming a finale of “The Ultimate Fighter” into standard fight night fare without making a bigger deal out of it. Unlike its predecessor, many lines going into UFC on ESPN 30 this Saturday in Las Vegas are vast, with a trio of competitors bringing betting odds of 4-to-1 or above. Despite the spread, there are ways to cash in, whether following the near pick’em in the headliner, a tailor-made matchup, a fair flier or what could be an emotional knockout early on.

Edson Barboza (-120)

The betting line for this main event has drifted in such a fashion that both men were at one time the favorite, but recent money has come in on the longtime vet over former Glory kickboxer Giga Chikadze. On paper, this may be one of the easiest “Fight of the Night” prospects the promotion could put together, with two forward-moving strikers that loathe fighting off their back foot. Something has to give, and it remains to be seen whether this is where Barboza once again stamps his foot as the elite striker in the division or if it is a passing of the torch moment. Chikadze, who turned 33 this week, is only two years the junior of his opponent, and he has plenty of fight miles when factoring in his past career. When skills match up well, durability and technique are close and physical attributes are similar, intangibles can play a strong factor. This is where Barboza separates himself from his up-and-coming opponent, and smart money should be on the Brazilian to do what he does best in a fun style-versus-style clash.

Coming into his first UFC main event, Chikadze has taken a sanguine and nearly boastful approach, even going so far as to question the level of competition that Barboza has faced. In an interview with MMA Fighting, Chikadze had the audacity to claim that Barboza’s work has been primarily against “way lower-level strikers.” It is preposterous to claim fighters like Shane Burgos, Dan Hooker, Anthony Pettis or Paul Felder are “low-level strikers,” especially when looking at Chikadze’s ledger. While the Georgian has since proved himself against UFC-caliber opposition, coming into his UFC debut, his only MMA victories came in the notorious Gladiator Challenge organization. There, his opponents in those seven outings combined for a dazzling record of 3-56.

Level of competition is easily one of Barboza’s best selling points, and one would be hard-pressed to look back at the recent tenure of the dangerous Brazilian and point at an easy matchup. In fact, if playing the MMA math game, Chikadze’s best career win came over Cub Swanson; Barboza wrecked the man that beat Swanson in the aforementioned Burgos. The number of pure strikers that have defeated Barboza can be counted on one hand, and judging by his May performance against Burgos, he has not slowed a step despite dropping to 145 pounds and crossing the age threshold of 35. If anything, his power has translated marvelously to featherweight, as he has dropped all three opponents at least once since moving down in 2020.

Fans could be treated to quite a thriller in this one, but that will largely depend on Chikadze’s ability to hang at the highest level. MMA striking is far different than that of muay Thai, and while the man known as “Ninja” may have kickboxing laurels to celebrate, when combining all the disciplines and blending them inside a cage, Barboza should have a sizable advantage. The way to defeat Barboza, if not using wrestling—it would be surprising to see Chikadze even try take the fight down—is to pressure him and not give him space to get off his high-amplitude strikes. Chikadze might prefer to counterattack, but this approach could allow Barboza to snipe him and work him down to a late stoppage—the Georgian has never competed beyond the third round in MMA—or outwork him to a five-round thriller of a decision. As a slight favorite, Barboza is a solid bet and one that should make bettors feel more comfortable the longer it goes.

Andre Petroski Wins Inside Distance (-205)

If a fighter is considered a 2-to-1 favorite to finish his opponent, generally it is not the best course of action to throw money on them as they are likely a prohibitive favorite. In this instance, career middleweight Petroski will take on a man in Micheal Gillmore whose 185-pound debut came on short notice on the featured season of “The Ultimate Fighter.” In his appearance, serving as a replacement for an injured Miles Hunsinger, Gillmore may not have even registered a single significant strike before being dragged to the canvas and submitted with relative ease. While both Gillmore and Petroski lost on “The Ultimate Fighter,” their appearances told two different stories: While Petroski cruised past Aaron Phillips in the quarterfinals, he fell victim to eventual finalist Bryan Battle’s submission game. Gillmore, on the other hand, showed few signs of a competitive run in this division, even though he impressed UFC President Dana White by staying in Las Vegas as a potential alternate and quit his job in hopes of getting the callup. This matchup is not one in his best interest, and Petroski should be able to end it quickly.

Unlike his opponent, Petroski did see one opportunity on a larger stage and engaged in a fun battle with Aaron Jeffery before succumbing to several knees to the head while leaned over against the fence. Almost exclusively due to his wrestling and not from his means-to-an-end striking, Petroski won the first round and part of the second until Jeffery tagged him and put him away. Gillmore, who has had a modicum of success the last couple years with a trio of wins over outmatched opponents, has never fought professionally above 175 pounds. Petroski will enter this battle as the much larger man, and he should have little difficulty getting the fight to the canvas, at which point he can unload on “The Gentleman.” Whether by strikes or by isolating a limb to wrench off, look for Petroski to be firmly in the driver’s seat until the finish. If this line by itself is not appetizing, pair it with your option of if this fight goes over or under 1.5 rounds: The under at -142 is a more likely outcome, given Petroski’s propensity for winning fights quickly.

Gerald Meerschaert (+450)

Makhmud Muradov, also known as the lone MMA representative under the management system of Floyd Mayweather Jr., will be meeting Meerschaert as an overwhelming -600 favorite. While conventional wisdom says Muradov can shrug off the oncoming takedown attempts, walk “GM3” down and smash him in the face, there is some value in this line as a flier. As he has aged, Meerschaert’s chin, which used to help him through difficult battles, has become a liability, judging by recent knockout defeats to both Ian Heinisch and Khamzat Chimaev. The path to victory is clear for Meerschaert, and while Muradov has improved greatly since his early days, Meerschaert is easily one of the most dangerous grapplers he has faced. Should you believe this play is silly, Muradov Wins by TKO/KO can be found around -150 depending on which book you see.

This middleweight matchup could easily be considered a trap fight for the athletic striker, who faces a veteran submission artist that can elicit a tap in an instant. Perhaps most deceptive about Meerschaert’s submission prowess is that fighters often do not realize they have been trapped until it is too late; to wit, three of the last four wins for “GM3” came via technical submission. As it stands, massive favorites over battle-tested opponents draw immediate scrutiny, and few should be this heavily favored over someone like Meerschaert. While this does present a tough stylistic matchup for Meerschaert, Muradov tends to start slowly, which could allow the American to take advantage of the situation and catch him dry. It might not present itself as an upset special, but there is possible value in the biggest underdog of the night.

Leomana Martinez Wins by TKO/KO (-110)

This UFC debut will be an especially powerful one for Martinez, whose coach Saul Soliz passed away due to COVID-19 merely a week ago. It was never outright explained why the matchup between Martinez and Guido Cannetti was pushed back one week, but that could be attributed to this unfortunate situation. Some fighters can handle this grief well, looking to record a dramatic win and dedicate the victory to someone. Others have been distracted, appearing bewildered in the cage and unable to listen to corner advice. The expectation is the former for Martinez, whose power carries extremely well for his size.

Martinez comes into his promotional debut 15 years younger than his Argentinian counterpart. Few competitors in the history of the sport experience success in the twilight of their careers, with speed tantamount to the division and something that fades fast. Bantamweight is the kind of the division, to quote Lionel Richie, where you “can’t slow down.” One has to keep moving, and Martinez will very likely stalk his relatively elder adversary down as he unleashes a veritable tornado of strikes. Cannetti’s chin may have only been cracked once in his career, but it came in his last bout in short order. “Manaboi” is a fast starter, and using the emotional impact of his late coach as his motivation, he should record a quick finish and start the night off with a heartwarming story.