Prime Picks: UFC on ESPN 29 ‘Cannonier vs. Gastelum’

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After an important bye week, the Ultimate Fighting Championship comes back on Saturday with its best foot forward: an ESPN offering headlined by two middleweight contenders attempting to rebound from losses to former champion Robert Whittaker. Barring any late-notice cancellations, this 12-fight show at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas may end up being the most closely matched event of the year, with nary a betting favorite above -190 at the moment. UFC on ESPN 29 might be light on star power, but it still provides some decent action if you know where to look, whether in the main event, the head-scratching co-headliner, a heavyweight slobberknocker or a middleweight style clash.

Jared Cannonier (-145)

Desperate to stay relevant at 185 pounds despite having lost four of his last five, Kelvin Gastelum still finds himself in not only a main event spot but against a Top 3 opponent when he draws Cannonier. With Cannonier originally slated to take on Paulo Costa, Gastelum replaced the Brazilian in June, thus allowing full camps for both men in this middleweight main event. The winner of Season 17 of “The Ultimate Fighter” has a distinct path to victory, and it is one proven quite effective against Cannonier: wrestling. Putting Cannonier on his back, thereby taking away his authoritative striking arsenal, will work wonders for Gastelum. Over the course of 25 minutes, unless Cannonier finds himself in the danger zone by competing in the championship rounds for the first time since taking on the legendary Tony Lopez in 2014, his sheer power is the difference maker.

Gastelum has never been knocked out, and his chin has been thoroughly vetted by the likes of Israel Adesanya and Whittaker since returning to middleweight. Volume has never been his strongest suit in this division, preferring to exhibit surprising speed and quickness to catch opponents off-guard and slam them to the mat or bust them in the chops. Against men that can take everything he dishes out and give it right back, Gastelum has struggled. His last win over Ian Heinisch reminded him that he could still grapple effectively and not just rely on his hands like a Johny Hendricks-type, but Whittaker’s anti-wrestling game served as a flawless foil in April. Should Gastelum stand in the center of the cage and want to throw down, he’s going to have a bad time.

“The Killa Gorilla” would like nothing more than to remain in kickboxing range, where he can employ devastating leg kicks and execute a longer striking game with a six-inch reach advantage. At times, Gastelum can get lured into a standup battle, especially if he finds success and thinks he can take advantage of the situation. This would undoubtedly prove his undoing, with his right leg planted to be kicked mercilessly. Cannonier, who has suffered knockout losses in the past, has yet to fall short due to strikes at this lower weight class, and a former welterweight may not be the one to ring his bell. Constantly pressing forward, while keeping Gastelum on his back foot, will go a long way in this bout.

It is often noted that in a striker-versus-grappler matchup, the grappler can control where the fight takes place and therefore maintains an inherent advantage. This is true in many regards, and could easily break this play if Gastelum listens to his well-educated corner of Kings MMA. What changes this dynamic is if the striker, expecting the fight to go to the mat, makes their adversary pay for any attempt after stopping it from happening. Discouraging Gastelum from entries or shots by stuffing them and snapping his head back with an uppercut or chopping his lead leg down on the way in will make him take a second thought at spamming takedown attempts. Getting pressed against the cage when Gastelum tries to lock his hands around his leg, using elbows to pound on the side of Gastelum’s head, those kinds of strategies will give Cannonier the edge.

In three tries, Gastelum has fallen short when bouts go 25 full minutes. As mentioned before, “The Ultimate Fighter” winner has never been stopped with strikes, but if it were to happen, it might be at the hands and legs of this opponent. Cannonier presents the kind of stunning power that can put people away—all but one of his UFC wins have come by knockout, and the lone decision victory in that stretch a wild rumble with Ion Cutelaba in 2016. Varying his attack, to the head, body and legs, can keep Gastelum guessing as damage continues to mount. This could get wild if they both throw caution to the wind and engage, and Gastelum could even take a round or two from takedowns and top control. At 37 and climbing, the bottom could fall out from the Alaska native anytime, but he should still have enough to outfight Gastelum and get a win to put himself right back into contention.

Clay Guida-Mark O. Madsen Goes to Decision (-215)

Before getting into the particulars, it should be noted: This is a trap fight for Madsen. A layoff dating back slightly before the COVID-19 pandemic took hold, his 37th birthday on the calendar next month and a slew of injuries and personal drama coming into this pairing all raise red flags for the unbeaten Danish Olympian. Light on MMA miles but a lifelong wrestler, it remains to be seen how long he will keep competing, and it may seem remarkable to some that Madsen comes in less than three years younger than the eternally youthful Guida. Nevertheless, the smart money may not be on picking Guida with the slight +145 upset or Madsen’s favored status of -165, but a safer option that this fight lasts the full 15 minutes. It would not be out of the realm of possibility that the former Strikeforce champ puts himself on his first win streak in nearly four years, nor would it be shocking that Madsen demonstrates the adage of “there are levels to this” by imposing his Olympic-level Greco on his long-haired foe.

The number of men that have outwrestled “The Carpenter” through his lengthy Strikeforce and UFC tenure can be counted on one hand, as he generally prefers to be the hammer and not the nail. Finishing the fight has not been historically as important to Guida, recording a single stoppage win over the last decade. Weaponizing his cardio, frustrating his foe with awkward striking and chain-wrestling has been his claim to fame as much as his hairstyle—a hairdo that survived a hefty cash offer to chop it off for an old UFC video game—and it is one that he can impose on many of the best fighters in the world. Catching Guida dry with a choke has often been the way to defeat him, who attacks recklessly from the get-go and finds himself in precarious positions at times. A chin that still holds up to this day will keep Guida in the fight for three rounds, and his gas tank should be his advantage by a landslide. Three grappling-heavy rounds are likely what fans should expect for this battle, but it could still be quite entertaining as Guida never stays on his back for long when opponents get him there.

Chase Sherman Wins by TKO/KO (+140)

Following what appears to be a clear pattern at this point, two unranked heavyweight brawlers come to blows high up on the main card, well above fighters in lower weight classes with numbers next to their names. With 19 knockouts in their combined 25 wins, it is likely fans will be treated to a rock-em sock-em slugfest for as long as it lasts. While Sherman is coming off of a disappointing loss against the fifth incarnation of Andrei Arlovski, Parker Porter surprised many in his last performance, a win over Josh Parisian. Instead of suffering a stoppage loss like some prognosticated, Porter weathered the early storm and turned a corner with an impressively high work rate and even a few takedowns for good measure. The same situation could very well play out again—Porter by decision is a decent +435—as Sherman has never beaten a foe still on the UFC roster, but Sherman’s diversity of strikes including powerful leg kicks can do what Parisian could not.

For every minute that elapses, both Porter and those that wagered on him to win should gain confidence. To wit, “The Vanilla Gorilla” has never pulled off a stoppage any later than 8:36 in a fight, and just two knockouts in the second round indicate that this may be a first round or bust play. Porter historically has been blitzed early, with all but one of his career defeats coming in the opening round, and Chris Daukaus put him away a year ago courtesy of several pinpoint accurate punches and a knee on the side of the head. Sherman can unquestionably replicate this, while mixing up low kicks to open up strikes over the top. The prospect of Sherman latching on to a submission is extremely unlikely, and even if the Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt hurts Porter and falls into a grappling-centric position, he will more likely keep clubbing away until the referee pulls him off. Fists and feet will fly, and when the dust settles, the Mississippi native will likely lift his career knockout rate to a stellar 94%.

William Knight (-170)

There is a bit of caution when it comes to this line—not because Knight should not be the rightful favorite, in fact, he should likely be favored more heavily—when it comes to the prop bets assessing Knight’s method of victory. The straight moneyline, in this situation, still provides some solid value against a foe in Fabio Cherant that wants to turn this into a straight grappling match. In his last bout, Knight was thoroughly outworked by Da Un Jung, who ran a clinic on him en route to a dominant decision. There exists the possibility that Cherant can try to replicate this result, but he has yet to display his grappling chops against opponents that were not the likes of 1-5 or 0-3.

When Cherant dropped his UFC debut, it came against powerhouse Alonzo Menifield, who practically knocked “The Water Buffalo” out and submitted him in the span of 71 seconds. The short-notice nature of the match cannot be ignored, and Cherant has taken a full camp to prepare for a man that Sherdog senior editor Ben Duffy observes “looks like a man built out of bowling balls.” Knight, who came into the UFC with stoppages in each of his first nine bouts, win or lose, has gone the distance in his last two with dramatically different outcomes. Even though this matchup could be tailor made for Knight to clock Cherant, there exists the distinct possibility that Cherant survives the worst of the blows and may even win the third frame. It should not be enough, as Knight can display enough cardio to take a 10-8 second round from Aleksa Camur—a man that destroyed Cherant on Dana White’s Contender Series. One way or another, Knight should get himself back on the win column against the former Legacy Fighting Alliance champ, whether by knockout or by outlasting Cherant after three grueling rounds.