Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 232 ‘Allen vs. Craig’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship puts on one more fight card before Thanksgiving break, with a spread of appetizers, side dishes and a potentially dramatic main course. The lineup may not seem as filling as the mighty UFC 295 that preceded it, but the table will be replete with options. What stands out at this event is the sheer number of betting lines making analysts and community members scratch their heads. Join this shortened UFC Fight Night 232 edition of Prime Picks as we stuff our turkeys with a pair of upsets based on fighters who have a far greater chance for victory than the sportsbooks suggest.

Paul Craig Wins Inside Distance (+425)

Like many of the other bouts on the billing, the line for this main attraction seems amiss. Brendan Allen, a talented middleweight with only a few speed bumps in the promotion, comes in anywhere from -425 to -480. He has displayed why bettors favor him, sporting three rear-naked chokes in a row against extremely tough outs—most impressively, tapping out grappling wiz Andre Muniz with 35 seconds left on the clock. Until he manages to finagle that submission or win the occasional decision, however, Allen is very hittable and engages in reckless slugfests where he gets tagged and comes back firing. In terms of pure striking acumen, Allen may be superior, but Craig possesses plenty of firepower and throws hard, even to his detriment. Given the danger “Bearjew” presents at all times, it is too tempting to pass up an upset call with his line for a stoppage as high as it is.

Counting out Craig will always be a mistake. Even at 35, the Scottish fighter has plenty left in the tank and can still recover from damage to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. The weight cut was a large question mark, as 6-foot-4 Craig cutting 20 pounds to relocate to middleweight seemed like a flight of fancy until he pulled it off and punished Muniz with a long series of nasty elbows. Muniz had won the first round and was well on his way in the second, but for the Brazilian’s seemingly intentional headbutt and deft grappling prowess from Craig. The resourceful Craig is and will always be a threat if the fight hits the mat, whether to attempt a sweep or by weaponizing his venomous offensive guard.

On paper, the finish rate of “All In” at 82% seems ultra-impressive, given the list of names he has stopped over the years. Even if he hits hard, the club-and-sub approach is what he favors, with a lightning-quick back take and a rear-naked choke grip that is nigh-unbreakable. Allen is not afraid to hunt for low-percentage attempts, which may not get him into trouble against Karl Roberson or Tom Breese. Craig may bring the kind of submission talent that can foil Allen’s traps and beat him at his own game, or take advantage of the little lapses he can have amid scrambles. It is possible that Allen ends up stifling Craig’s escape attempts and lets the Scotsman pull guard so he can punish him. The weight cut might make Craig’s chin more liable to damage, and if in position, Allen can dish out some serious ground-and-pound. However, with the weapons at the Craig’s disposal and his ability to finish the fight instantly, a massive plus-money play should not be dismissed.

Caio Machado (+275)

These two fights—namely Craig-Allen and Machado-Michael Parkin—are not the only two that could be pitched for the underdog; other names jumping off the page include Jordan Leavitt, Luana Pinheiro and Joanderson Brito. Even a flier on Nick Aguirre to spoil the unbeaten record of Payton Talbott is not irrational, given that the 25-year-old is a near-comical -800 favorite against “Slick Nick.” We do settle on the heavyweight division, in a match between relatively inexperienced big men with stoppage rates of 86% (Parkin) and 75% (Machado). The Brit called “Mick” sports a spotless record, although he only holds two wins over opponents with records over .500, while Machado’s resume is slightly stronger. It might hinge on which fighter gets on top first, but the Brazilian possesses grappling skills that Parkin has not displayed yet. Even if Parkin is the rightful favorite, his line at -350 is too high, and Machado deserves an upset look.

Despite their sizes and the number of knockouts on their respective resumes, they are not generally one-hitter quitter types. It is not a “puncher’s chance” type of match with how both fighters present themselves, and in the case of Parkin, he tends to fall on top of people and pound them out. This might work against foes like 2-17 Jan Lysak or 1-10 Tomas Vaicikas, but Machado is a much more live test who pushes back and does not topple over at the first sign of adversity. Likely weighing 10-15 pounds lighter—not counting any weight cutting Parkin may do to reach 265—Machado should be the quicker man and shows that when he scrambles on the mat. If Parkin shoots and cannot bowl his adversary over, Machado could turn the corner and dump him on his back, as he did in his rematch against Lee Mein. Machado can instantly snatch up a topside armbar if he can claim a dominant position. If not, he can hit sweeps, but if he plays jiu-jitsu off his back for too long, he might face the wrecking balls of fists hurled by “Mick.” If Machado does not get grounded-and-pounded out by the heavier man, he has the tools to pull off a serious upset and remove the “0” from his foe.