Prime Picks: UFC 292 ‘Sterling vs. O’Malley’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday brings a bevy of brawls to Beantown, with a pair of likely action-packed championship affairs in tow. The snakebitten event has experienced a number of switcheroos before it is set to go down at TD Garden, and lines are predictably all over the map. There may be more bouts to pass on than usual, but there are still ways to come out ahead when all is said and done. Join the UFC 292 edition of Prime Picks as we cast our ballot for a prolonged main event engagement, once again shout out the “never say die” attitude of a pure finisher and present a primo parlay primed with pain and punishment.

STRAIGHT UP CASH

Aljamain Sterling-Sean O’Malley Goes Over 2.5 Rounds (-150)

It would be a disservice to the Prime Picks franchise if we skipped over the intense championship matchups atop the billing. They are, however, notably difficult to navigate, seeing wide odds for the defending champs and enough variance where drilling down to most props is a high-risk, medium-reward proposal. Instead of picking winners, methods or something overly dramatic, the best recommendation might be a factor of time. The main attraction will be a question of grappling, and it will either answer whether O’Malley can rise to the occasion or Sterling can impose his will. No matter how that ultimately shakes out, it will take a while to get there, which gives promise to the fight lasting beyond 2:30 of Round 3.

Sterling has ample experience engaging in and preparing for five-round encounters, while O’Malley has not headlined a fight card since his days of combat in Montana. The championship rounds will be a new experience for O’Malley should it get that far, and it is mandatory that he shore up his takedown defense to a level far beyond his previous outing. Against Petr Yan, O’Malley struggled to fight off takedowns from various angles; and even though ground control time was not substantial, it allowed Yan to eat up time pursuing the positional change, not to mention battling “Sugar Sean” on the way up. In those exchanges against Yan, O’Malley turned to his side to stand, and a back-take artist like Sterling could snatch that dominant position in an instant. If one is to blow up this play, it will be Sterling securing the early tapout, as he did when he faced Cory Sandhagen.

At his best, O’Malley is a sniper, with high accuracy and impressive pop on his strikes that seem to find their target even when an opponent is in transition. Keen on landing his strikes, “Sugar Sean” is in the Top 10 as one of the most accurate strikers in organizational history. There is little wasted energy, so questions of his gas tank have not arisen despite a nice knockout rate of 69%. At the higher levels, however, he generally is not a blazing fast finisher, as O’Malley needed over 12:50 to punch out the likes of Thomas Almeida and Kris Moutinho in recent memory. Other than one single gorgeous knee from once-feared striker Marlon Moraes, Sterling’s chin has rarely been in question. A knockdown or two on his way up did not slow him much, as his recoverability is exceptional. Sterling can and likely will turn this into a wrestling match with submissions in play, and O’Malley might be able to rise to the occasion early to slow him. However, he may not be able to hold the line for the entirety of their meeting. As long as a Sterling submission or a laser-like destabilizing left from O’Malley does not materialize before the midpoint of the third frame, this is straight up cash.

STRAIGHT UP PASS

Brad Tavares (-275)

Seeing as though he has spent over 13 years on the UFC roster, it is almost an anomaly that Tavares has only notched two stoppages given his status as a perennial contender. Workmanlike may be the perfect word to describe his style, as he is not the prototypical Hawaiian brawler, nor does he lean heavily on any grappling chops he picked up over his many years training at Xtreme Couture. Tavares can put a pace on someone, but he tends to fight opponents to their own best attributes, which means slugging it out with Phil Baroni all those years ago, engaging in a wrestling match with Yoel Romero or standing toe-to-toe against Israel Adesanya. His cardio, when coupled with his durability, might be his best asset, but foes seem to be finding his chin rather often the last few years. If he is to upset Chris Weidman, he will need to keep the fight standing for three rounds, and he will need to fight defensively. Tavares might be rightfully favored over the returning Weidman, but at those odds, the juice is not worth the squeeze.

The UFC matched the perfect opponent against Weidman, who is coming back to competition after over two years away, having healed from a gruesome leg break against Uriah Hall. Many expected Weidman would never compete again, but at 39 years of age and counting, the “All-American” seems to want to go out with a win. All six of his defeats have come by stoppage, and on paper, every one can be at the very least understandable—for example, facing Luke Rockhold at the pinnacle of his abilities or going up in weight to battle a Dominick Reyes who in his very next appearance arguably beat Jon Jones. While at one time Weidman was a serviceable boxer, his chin has unquestionably become a liability at this point. Tavares would like nothing more than to lure Weidman into a technical brawl, as he still shows to have a speed advantage and arguably better power in the hands, even if it is not game-changing in nature. If Weidman wants to prove a point that he can still get busted in the chops and keep on surging forward, he will need to do so by mixing in his wrestling or at least threatening with it to keep Tavares from fully committing to his offense. Should confidence in Weidman be at an all-time low and one expects that he will get his chin checked again, Tavares Wins by TKO/KO is +125.

DOG WILL HUNT

Gerald Meerschaert (+200)

At some point, the live underdog part of Prime Picks may end up being renamed the “Meerschaert Selection” given how often he seems to be the arguable best bet for springing upsets. With over 50 fights under his belt and with his turning 36 at the end of the year, the best days of “GM3” could be behind him, but he is still not worthy of being counted out yet. It is no accident that all of his victories inside the Octagon are stoppages, as he is an opportunist in the same vein of a Paul Craig figure. Meerschaert will take damage to turn things around, with surprisingly effective striking coupled with a lethal submission game. Susceptible to getting blitzed in the early going, Meerschaert draws a foe who is not likely to be able to buzz him in the opening stretch and put him away. As long as he is still with it, Meerschaert can snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, which makes him worth a nod on the betting lines.

Just 10 fights into his pro career—not counting his time on “The Ultimate Fighter”—Andre Petroski’s striking is still a means to an end to set up his wrestling. Capable of powerful blast double-leg entries and other effective means of grounding his opponent, Petroski’s successes have largely come when putting someone on the mat and smacking them around. This has worked thus far against outmatched middleweights like Micheal Gillmore and Yaozong Hu, but his win over Wellington Turman remains the only one he has lodged over someone who still remains on the roster. With four wins and no defeats in the Octagon thus far, “The Ultimate Fighter 29” semifinalist has already amassed 16 takedowns to date, and his top position has been relatively unchallenged beyond a single guillotine effort from Turman. Petroski has yet to get submitted, so if “GM3” pulls it off, he will be the first to do so as a pro, but Petroski will need to be exceedingly careful in his shot selection as well as his activity when he puts Meerschaert on his back. Given Petroski’s propensity for the ground game, he will be sticking his head in the proverbial lion’s mouth, and this gives the wily veteran every chance to pull something off.

AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION:

Weili Zhang-Amanda Lemos Ends Inside Distance (-350)

Gregory Rodrigues (-365)

Meerschaert-Petroski Ends Inside Distance (-270)

Total Odds: +124

Due to the stylistic clash for the bantamweight belt sitting in the marquee spot, the second championship tilt has flown completely under the radar. It presents the kind of violence that should be celebrated, with finish rates of 83% and 85% sported between Zhang and Lemos, respectively. It just so happens to bring together two of the hardest hitters in the division, and they will throw down until one of them falls down, and perhaps beyond then. Power of a pound-for-pound caliber will be on display, and the selection that this bout ends by stoppage is the perfect way to anchor a three-leg parlay. Lemos has gone the distance just twice in her nine-fight UFC tenure, while five of Zhang’s nine appearances have also ended via stoppage, win or lose. Unless the two over-respect each other’s strengths, this should end before the final bell, and Zhang at -325 might be way off.

When looking to large favorites, many consider the ways that the underdog can pull off the win. With one of the largest minus-numbers next to his name, “Robocop” Rodrigues battles Russian kickboxer Denis Tiuliulin and will just need to keep his head above water. It is unfair to say that Tiuliulin, who sports nine of his 10 pro wins by knockout, has little more than a puncher’s chance. However, given his ground deficiencies against Rodrigues’ underrated ability to wrestle, he might end up on his back early and likewise get put away quickly. The Brazilian is quite hittable, and he is not afraid to take some damage to come out the other side. If he gets into a wild brawl, this heavy line might start to drift in the other direction, but the moneyline is a decent middle option for this three-way pick.

The book may already be written on Meerschaert, but it is an exciting one from cover to cover. This is a man who holds a submission loss to the notorious Jay Ellis, while also being the kind of fighter who ran through Bruno Silva and Makhmud Muradov. It is almost a certainty that he will get hit by Petroski, and it is just as likely that he will end up on his back in at least one point of the middleweight scrap. Meerschaert’s guillotine is an extremely dangerous weapon that could put fear into the heart of Petroski during a takedown attempt. Even with all of the items in his arsenal, “GM3” is far from indestructible, and a savvy competitor like Petroski could let Meerschaert wear himself out all while mashing him into paste with ground-and-pound. Given how these two approach the fight game, there is a low likelihood that they involve the judges, which will cap off this accumulator in style.