Prime Picks: UFC 280 ‘Oliveira vs. Makhachev’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday will go big in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, with a pay-per-view offering in which every main card bout and some of the prelims could serve as a worthy UFC Fight Night headliner. Some betting lines on this event have surprised experts. They include three main-draw underdogs many people think should be favored. Join the UFC 280 edition of Prime Picks as we navigate this overstuffed lineup, with a former champion who should walk through a step down in competition from a rankings perspective, a title fight that advises some caution in the favorite, a potential upset in the works and a crispy three-piece parlay that comes not with a soda but a plus line.

STRAIGHT UP CASH

Petr Yan (-265)

Instead of starting with the championship affairs—more on those shortly—the best case for a sure thing on the UFC 280 main card may be in the “featured fight of the night” slot. Yan will battle it out with the outspoken, colorfully maned Sean O’Malley, and he has displayed superior physical skills in every fashion that do not rely on gifts like height and reach. Even so, Yan has faced opponents with similar builds as O’Malley, as the former champion outworked the rangy Cory Sandhagen in a five-round thriller. Few men have hit Yan and stunned him, and O’Malley holds the power to do so early on, but that will fade as the fight progresses and the Russian settles in. Barring a quick sniper-like blow—O’Malley has not yet landed a stoppage due to strikes in less than 90 seconds—he will face rough sledding anywhere the fight goes.

“Sugar Sean” has impressed during his UFC tenure, with nearly half a dozen knockdowns to his credit, including three in a row before his no contest with Pedro Munhoz in July. While his volume is nothing short of exceptional and his accuracy at a high level, he has amassed those numbers over less-than-stellar opposition. This is not to slight the likes of Raulian Paiva and Thomas Almeida, but that talent does not stack up against the men Yan has faced: Jose Aldo, Jimmie Rivera and John Dodson. Whenever O’Malley has received a step up in competition to a Top 10-caliber opponent, like Munhoz or Marlon Vera, he has faltered when things did not immediately go his way. Yan’s pressure, sturdiness and the ability to mix in takedowns out of nowhere will make O’Malley struggle for as long as the fight lasts. As Yan’s line continues to fall, an outright pick for him is no less advisable, as he has the tools and proven ability to win this matchup at least nine times out of 10.

Straight Up Pass

Aljamain Sterling (-180)

Sterling, a victor in his last seven appearances, will come in as a substantial betting favorite over ex-titleholder and one of the consensus greatest bantamweights of all-time in T.J. Dillashaw. While Sterling is undoubtedly the real deal as the undisputed champion, he has his hands full with Dillashaw. Unorthodox and elusive, Sterling keeps most opponents guessing with a surprisingly active striking game despite not being a striker. Excellent at closing the distance without getting cracked on the way in, “Aljo” would like nothing more than to get the fight to the ground. He faces a 5-foot-6 brick wall with heavy fists, and even though post-EPO Dillashaw is not as great as he once was for good reason, he remains an elite bantamweight. Should Dillashaw force this pairing into a kickboxing match—a feat he can achieve by stonewalling takedown attempts—he has all the weapons to pull off the upset and get his belt back.

Dillashaw’s legacy cannot be reviewed without the red-celled elephant in the room: Every performance following the test and lengthy suspension will be scrutinized and compared to prior outings. To do so blindly would ignore factors like aging, multiple surgeries and general wear and tear in a division that is typically unkind to the older brethren. The specific type of drug improves red blood cell production and therefore enhances cardio and training ability to push through limits a clean fighter could not. Weaponizing cardio was one way Dillashaw excelled, with late knockouts coming after he cruised and somehow looked better as the bouts progressed. His rebound effort against Sandhagen showed that he could still keep a high pace in the championship rounds, as he turned up the volume and effort in Round 5 to snag a split verdict over the “Sandman.” Dillashaw also maintains a specific win-loss pattern, where he wins four fights and loses, and he has kept that intact for his entire career. Superstitions aside, Dillashaw’s power, coupled with his elite-level wrestling, make a nearly 2-to-1 pick for the defending champ a tough proposition.

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Dog Will Hunt

Charles Oliveira (+165)

Of all the competitors at the Abu Dhabi-staged event, no underdog has the skills to pull off a finish better than the ex-lightweight champ. With the promotion’s all-time submission and finish record in tow and surprising new power in his hands that allows him to stand and bang against the most fearsome strikers in the division, Oliveira is dangerous anywhere the fight goes. A few other noteworthy plus-money participants—Beneil Dariush (+165) and Katlyn Chookagian (+175)—are definitely worthy of tossing hard-earned cash on to spring upsets, but “Do Bronx” is worth every penny. While he faces a nearly flawless Islam Makhachev for the vacant belt, the Russian has never faced someone that (a) hits as hard or (b) sets up submissions as well as Oliveira.

Akin to the breakdown above where strength of schedule plays a significant factor in weighing skills at the top level, it is night and day for their last several outings. Makhachev has looked nothing short of spectacular, outworking Davi Ramos before finishing Drew Dober, Thiago Moises, Dan Hooker and Bobby Green in the span of a year. However, Hooker is arguably the best of the bunch, and that pales in comparison to the practically historic run that Oliveira has blazed through. When Kevin Lee is the lowest-ranked adversary in five straight spectacular showcases and the Brazilian puts away Michael Chandler, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje in rapid succession, he approaches a resume of heroic proportions.

Oliveira can survive adversity, take a heavy strike and hit back harder, or even deal with getting grounded for long stretches to turn the tables. Makhachev will have to compete practically perfect in every way, without allowing Oliveira to land cleanly—the Russian is notoriously elusive when it comes to absorbing blows—and fatiguing the vaunted submission specialist by making him fight off his back. Oliveira can give up time playing jiu-jitsu from his guard, and an ironclad Makhachev could wear him out and win enough rounds to get the decision, but he will have to go through a meat grinder to get there. The underdog ex-champ’s power can be the X-factor in how Makhachev approaches things after getting stung on the feet, and an outright pick for him is valuable enough without having to drill down in his getting a stoppage (+195).

An Accumulation Contemplation:

Petr Yan (-265)
Belal Muhammad-Sean Brady Goes to Decision (-240)
Karol Rosa (-335)
Total Odds: +153

This three-leg parlay brings two heavier but not unreasonable favorites and one prop available on all sportsbooks. Should your preferred book not allow mixing and matching of moneylines and props to put your accumulator together, a substitute could be Ciao Borralho at -210. Otherwise, the anchor of this will be Yan, who was discussed at length earlier as a solid option who can take it home. If Yan at -265 is too chalky to be snagged on his own, mixing him in with another play on the fight card is also a possibility. O’Malley will have to do the unthinkable and knock out Yan once the Russian picks things up as the rounds progress. He will, however, need to become the first fighter to achieve this feat, and Yan has faced some excellent finishers over the years.

It is a shock to some that Muhammad is a betting underdog to Brady, given his recent track record and ability to nullify most of the men standing across the cage from him. Brady’s shiny undefeated record, coupled with impressive performances in 2021 over Jake Matthews and Michael Chiesa, have earned him some favor in the perspective of the bettors. Rather than try to select the outcome of what should be a pick’em matchup, instead the safest option is that the three-round welterweight pairing reaches the final bell. Both men post finish rates below 50%, and when specific to UFC appearances, it tracks even lower: Brady has earned 40% of his UFC wins by finish, compared to under 17% for Muhammad. These two men, who would like nothing more than to test one another on the mat, will nullify each other in this potential title eliminator, and the preference of position over submission will allow the time to tick off the clock.

The night could be over before it begins if the opening play falls apart in this women’s bantamweight affair. Lina Lansberg is nearly 13 years older than her counterpart, and she has not had her hand raised since she grinded out Macy Chiasson in a significant upset more than three years ago. The “Elbow Princess” graduated to the “Elbow Queen” despite not putting anyone away with elbow strikes since 2015, and her “slow and steady wins the race” approach will firmly get put to the test by the youthful Rosa. Brazil’s Rosa has put up a staggering work rate to date, with a stellar significant strikes landed per minute average and the accuracy that comes with it. The only woman in five tries to shut Rosa down was Olympic wrestler Sara McMann, who did so courtesy of ample ground control time. Lansberg would rather fight at close range or against the wall tied up in the clinch—this is where she handled Chiasson—but the stronger, fresher Rosa can outland her, break the grip and do what she needs to do as a big favorite to start the parlay off right.