Prime Picks: UFC 279 ‘Chimaev vs. Diaz’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship will put its non-championship drawing powers to the test with UFC 279 on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. In its main attraction, a veritable squash match–at least according to its chasm-wide betting line—takes place across a maximum of five rounds. Five of the 13 matches on the bill see favorites with -300 odds or higher, and only two have the favored participant any closer than -150. For this installment of Prime Picks, we take a defunct series and modernize it to add a new feature, bringing with it a line to catch, one to avoid, an underdog worth mentioning and a three-piece parlay that does not come with a beverage.

STRAIGHT UP CASH

Khamzat Chimaev-Nate Diaz Lasts Under 2.5 Rounds (-160)

Just as it would be very Diaz-like to show up and pull a finish out of nowhere, that specific outcome was nearly this dart of a Prime Pick. Diaz getting the sits at terrific odds—around +1150 to +1400, depending on your book in question—and this is the only way he could possibly get his hand raised at night’s end beyond Chimaev slipping on a banana peel or skateboard in the cage. This matchmaking is intentional and ruthless, and it presents Diaz exactly the kind of style matchup to which he falls victim most often. If Benson Henderson can toss him around the cage over a half dozen times and Rory MacDonald can impose his will at any time, imagine what a part-time middleweight like Chimaev will do to him.

Chimaev Wins Inside Distance is too high on its own to recommend at -350, even if he celebrates a 91% finish rate with his lone non-stoppage against granite-jawed Gilbert Burns. It is still an obvious outcome, given what the Chechen-born Swede brings to the table. At that elevated of a line, however, his winning by stoppage is likely more suitable as a leg in a parlay than a simple outright bet. The value in this under compared to an expected victory inside the distance is significant when that win will most likely come quickly. Considering Diaz’s remarkable durability, the Under 1.5 rounds at +125 would have been considered, and the option of the fight ending before its midpoint allows one additional advantage: the highly unlikely outcome that the Stockton, California, native pulls one more Diaz rabbit out of the hat.

In the last decade, Diaz has fought past 2:30 of the second round in all but one of his outings, with that outlier being a quick knockout of Gray Maynard all the way back in 2013. On the other hand, no fighter has ever gotten the 37-year-old Cesar Gracie Fight Team product out of there any quicker than his lone submission loss, which took place in a different era at WEC 24 in 2006 against Hermes Franca. Even when outclassed entirely, Diaz does not fold like a flan in a cupboard, and he will be in there until the referee intervenes or the extremely unlikely final bell sounds. Chimaev may be a nasty finisher with horrific ground-and-pound, but one look at some of the dangerous past opponents Diaz has faced indicates he is not remotely an easy out. The second round is where many expect the fight will end, and that specific narrow line of Fight Doesn’t Start Round 3 is at -130. The under of 2.5 is slightly higher on the favored line for good reason, as it provides one additional safety valve, but more importantly, it is frankly an option available on a larger number of sportsbooks.

STRAIGHT UP PASS

Irene Aldana (-170)

Every time Aldana seems to gain some momentum lately, it is smashed to ribbons by opponents willing to lean on their grappling to take her out of her game. Raquel Pennington did it, fighting for takedowns for much of their 2019 battle and ultimately imposing her will enough to snag two rounds on the scorecards. Holly Holm also embraced her inner Division I wrestling chops as she shut Aldana down over five draining rounds; the former champion managed to officially ground Aldana once in every single round. Unluckily for Aldana, she faces the tall, strong Chiasson, who has no fear taking the fight to the mat. While the Lobo Gym rep has a path to victory if she stays on the outside edge and outboxes Chiasson, the chance for “The Ultimate Fighter 28” winner to grind out a victory is too high to make the favored Aldana worth selecting.

Aldana excels when she is able to let her hands go. High-volume affairs tend to go her way, and she has produced some impressive knockouts in her last pair of wins. While putting away Yana Kunitskaya impressed some, her 2019 blitzing of Ketlen Vieira showed one cannot sleep on her fists. Chiasson can come out flat-footed, and she can tend to lumber towards her opponents, giving chase rather than cutting them off. Aldana could capitalize on what should be a speed advantage, coupled with Chiasson moving back down to 135 pounds for their engagement. Strength will firmly be on Chiasson’s side, at least as long as her gas tank remains intact, but that could be enough to bank two rounds and survive a late surge by her counterpart. Aldana can most certainly win and punch a ticket for a championship opportunity, but this presents itself as a trap fight for her.

DOG WILL HUNT

Daniel Rodriguez (+170)

In this new segment created specifically for this edition of Prime Picks, “Dog Will Hunt” focused on one of the most live underdogs on the card. Johnny Walker (+185) is largely inconsistent and struggling lately; Julian Erosa at +180 could be worth a sprinkle if one expects Hakeem Dawodu to slip a gear suddenly; and Chris Barnett could shock everyone with one more performance. However, the spotlight should most clearly focus on Rodriguez. He takes on Kevin Holland at a 180-pound catchweight, and he is riding either a three- or 13-fight winning streak, depending on how one scored his contentious match against Nicolas Dalby in 2020. Rodriguez has all the necessary tools, including the grappling that can shut down Holland’s dynamic striking game, to spring an upset.

“Trailblazer” measures seven inches longer in the arms and likely several inches longer in the legs, as well, which helps him set up kicks from a distance. Holland is not always the type of fighter to use his physical advantages, which has plagued him in past performances. He is the combat embodiment of freeform jazz. Strikes will chain into more unorthodox moves, and his level of improvisation is high. That can work against fighter that it will fluster, but a competitor like “D-Rod,” with solid fundamentals and a well-rounded skillset, can slow it all down. The volume Rodriguez puts on opponents is sky-high, and he can work past rangier men to get on the inside and string together fast combinations. If Holland gets in his groove, it might be rough sledding, but Rodriguez has the grappling option in his back pocket at any time. It should be a back-and-forth match and one that provides an underdog worth pursuing.

AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION

Jingliang Li (-300)
Jailton Almeida (-680)
Norma Dumont (-400)
Total Odds (-110)

Like the aforementioned Holland, Tony Ferguson is a fluid striker who might not actually know what is next until he reactively makes that move. Like the greatest improvisers, “El Cucuy” knows how to place himself so that he can work with his strengths. Whether this gravitates towards a collar tie that sets up a standing submission, a shifting punch that leads to a spinning back elbow or something equally unique, he is there for it. Unfortunately, he is moving up in weight, and a stone wall in Li will stand before him, ready to fully embrace the nickname of “The Leech.” With bricks for fists and powerful wrestling at his disposal, Li can hit the last leg of this parlay by making Ferguson’s life miserable at 170 pounds.

On short notice, Almeida will no longer be officially fighting at heavyweight, as he takes a 220-pound catchweight—no explanation was given as to why this category was chosen instead of heavyweight—against unbeaten Dana White’s Contender Series signee Anton Turkalj. “The Pleasure Man” receives an extremely stiff test against a rising star in Almeida, who has secured all 16 of his wins inside the distance. While Turkalj is generally powerful at 205 pounds, any hope of him trying to take the fight to the ground may be his undoing against a submission magician like “Malhadinho.” A former middleweight, Turkalj will be in for an extremely rough night unless he can clip Almeida early; and Almeida will almost certainly overwhelm him before too long.

The accumulator begins in the women’s featherweight division between two women who are each about one win away from a title shot in a talent-starved weight class. The body of work for Danyelle Wolf is exceedingly limited, as all legitimate tape study can only be done from her single professional match against bantamweight Taneisha Tennant—in a fight that some scored for Tennant. Otherwise, one can find the 39-year-old Wolf’s ledger in the amateur boxing realm, where she amassed 30 wins and 14 defeats. More telling than her win-loss record or the fact that she never turned professional—Olympics issue notwithstanding—is that she never registered a single knockout among her 30 victories. If Wolf shows up against Dumont with decent boxing and fair takedown defense, she will find herself jammed up against the cage and eventually dragged to the mat. Dumont’s physicality will be telling, as she will be shorter but stockier, weight miss concerns aside. It may take 15 minutes of grind-embracing, but the heavily favored Dumont can start off the parlay solidly with a clear-cut victory over Wolf.