Prime Picks: Noche UFC ‘Lopes vs. Silva’

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The Ultimate Fighting Championship takes what could have been a sensational echo of the smashing success of Noche UFC—it is nominated for an Emmy after all—and drops the leftovers on the floor. Thanks to some poor but completely foreseeable planning, the organization booked a show in a newly constructed stadium in Guadalajara, Mexico, that many onlookers expected would not be nearly ready come fight night. What resulted is a shuffling of the deck to South Texas, where UFC Fight Night 259 will go down on Saturday in San Antonio. Rather than banking on regional success, like how French athletes went 5-0 at UFC Paris, this edition of Prime Picks noses in on some fun stylistic clashes where combatants should have marked advantages that may matter greatly.

Diego Lopes (+195)

Rumors of the Fighting Nerds’ demise have been greatly exaggerated. What was once a stellar run involving practically every major member of the team, sans Bruna Brasil, has turned into one encountering some roadblocks. In some way, it was to be expected—not out of a notion that the camp is overrated or that matchmaking has been favorable towards team members once it gained some public traction—but because practically everyone loses in this fight game. Caio Borralho and Mauricio Ruffy both hit walls they could not scale their last time out, and fellow teammate Jean Silva is about to crash into an equally destructive force in Lopes.

In terms of statistics on the feet, Silva has the advantage in most categories that matter other than height and reach: He is more active, more accurate and less hittable. While both men can mix in takedowns, Silva vastly prefers to let his hands fly and snatch up a submission if one presents itself. His aggressiveness may end up getting him trouble against a more durable opponent, as his high-water mark in terms of being able to best handle a punch in the face might still be Drew Dober—a brawler with multiple knockout losses. The five rounds should on paper favor Lopes, who has at least proved he can still swim late into the fight, especially when things are not going his way. If Lopes gives Silva some adversity to overcome, who knows how he will respond. The line should be closer, giving the underdog a perceived edge in this exciting headliner.

Rob Font (-130)

Every time someone seems to count Font out, he pulls off a “Y’all Musta’ Forgot”-type performance, beating someone believed to be quicker or stronger to the punch until he gets the better of them. The four losses in recent memory were against some of the best in the bantamweight division, and there is no shame in having a ceiling just beneath the Top 5 at 135 pounds, one of the most loaded weight classes these days. The way the boxer staved off Adrian Yanez, Kyler Phillips and Jean Matsumoto shows just how he can surpass the slight underdog in David Martinez. While the third of those three was extremely close, the Massachusetts native came in at plus money and won. This is too much too soon for Martinez, and Font is a perfect trap fight for him.

It needs to be noted that Raul Rosas Jr. was Font’s initial adversary, only for a late switch to promote Martinez to a much more substantial bout than he expected. While Font prepped for a grappler, he draws someone in Martinez who will try to match him on the feet. Even if Font needs to switch gears significantly, he can lean on his bread and butter of rangy technical striking with slick counters and deceptively fast footwork. Once Font gets comfortable behind his jab, he can flash his right hand behind it to threaten and put hands on the younger man’s face. There is little-to-no chance of a takedown from the replacement fighter, so Font will not need to worry about a two-tiered threat and instead can just watch out for incoming bombs. Unless he gets caught for what would be the first time in his career, this should be one more foe against whom Font, at 38, can still hold his own and then some.

Dusko Todorovic Wins Inside Distance (+165)

On a three-fight losing streak, Serbian slugger Todorovic is coming in around a -400 betting favorite against Jose Medina. While under most circumstances it would seem borderline unconscionable that this hapless striker who has not won in nearly three years is that heavily favored against anyone, his opponent just so happens to be “Chicho,” a man even lower on the totem pole at 185 pounds. Medina has shown little else other than being as durable as they come, especially because he sniped a contract after losing on Dana White’s Contender Series because of that toughness. It will not help him against Todorovic, who has earned all of his wins in the Octagon inside the distance.

Those stoppage wins for Todorovic are highlights on an otherwise rough resume thus far, as his UFC record stands at 3-6, with four of those defeats coming inside the distance. At least he can say he won with the promotion, which is something that Medina will likely have one final chance to do when they meet. The Bolivian may not be overtly bolstered by the Texas crowd, but he might get the “home team” treatment of the two if fans can muster up the energy. Even an unlikely intangible will not be able to help Medina once the cage door closes, as “Thunder” tends to be a headhunter with a bit of body work mixed in. The power difference should be immediate, and whether the 31-year-old can tap out or punch out the man three years his senior, all that matters is that he gets his hand raised and that the final bell is not heard in the process.

Montserrat Rendon (+120)

Leave it to a sizeable striker named Pereira to strike fear in the hearts of oddsmakers everywhere. On the ledger of Alice Pereira, she has faced foes so unaccomplished and unbefitting of fighting that even Tapology has flagged them as competing in bouts they had no hope of winning. It is not the fault of the youngster, just 19, for getting matched easily while so young and with so much promise. She fought against those the leagues dumped in front of her and then jumped ship to another organization before long. To say her strength of schedule is not one of her strengths is a massive understatement, with more than one adversary posting a negative record before she whooped up on them. Now she faces Rendon, someone with actual high-level skills. No disrespect to the ladies Pereira took on in the past, but the best name she has faced may be Samara Santos—a strawweight who has dropped nine of her last 11.

It remains to be seen what happens when Pereira is earnestly put on her back inside of a cage. She will have the youth advantage in spades, clocking in at almost half the age of the 36-year-old Rendon. She will also measure taller and should have the edge in her fists, as well, with physical attributes that could carry her a long way if she can fight off a level change. Rendon has notched exactly three takedowns in each of her UFC outings, so the Brazilian knows they will be coming. Can she stop them? In the case of a striker-versus-grappler affair, the grapplers often hold the upper hand because they can control where everything takes place. Rendon wants to trap “Golden Girl” on her back for a few minutes and see if she can sustain her power. It might not be pretty or thrilling, but it should be effective to keep Pereira off her game and shut her down.