Viewpoint: Path of Least Resistance

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The announcement came without much fanfare on a relatively quiet Tuesday in the mixed martial arts world.

The hot topic of the day, of course, was Muhammed Lawal and his Twitter outburst following a meeting with the Nevada Athletic Commission that resulted in his release from Zuffa LLC. While people were still ruminating on whether the punishment fit “King Mo’s” crime, Jake Shields decision was able to slip comfortably under the radar.

During an episode of “UFC Tonight” on Fuel TV, promotion officials confirmed the Cesar Gracie protégé would make his middleweight debut in the Octagon sometime in 2012. The move comes after he compiled a 2-2 mark at welterweight, including a defeat to Georges St. Pierre in a title bout at UFC 129. Big deal, you say. Shields already has a proven track record at 185 pounds as a former Strikeforce champion, with victories against the likes of Jason “Mayhem” Miller and Dan Henderson. He has already had success there and is hoping to replicate it. How is that major news?

By itself, unless you are a devotee to all things Shields, it is not major news. However, Shields’ return to the division could be indicative of a larger trend: a middleweight migration.

Shields carried a 14-fight winning streak into his UFC debut, and, after a contentious split decision triumph over Martin Kampmann at UFC 121, was fast tracked to a shot at St. Pierre. After back-to-back losses to St. Pierre and rising contender Jake Ellenberger, Shields’ path back to the top of the division appeared to be anything but swift, and a recent win over Yoshihiro Akiyama did little to improve his standing.

The Californian need only look at the 170-pound landscape to see a crowded waiting room that has several fresh faces -- including Ellenberger -- that rank above him in the current pecking order. With interim champion Carlos Condit likely electing to wait for St. Pierre to return sometime in late 2012 or even 2013, the prospects for another opportunity at the 170-pound belt look even bleaker. Plus, Shields, at age 33, is not getting any younger.

So he did what any self-respecting fighter with championship aspirations should do: he chose the path of least resistance. While Shields was grinding his way to a solid-but-unspectacular decision over Akiyama at UFC 144, Tim Boetsch was exploding into middleweight relevance with a miraculous comeback against Yushin Okami on that very same card.

Suddenly, Boestch, who was a .500 fighter at light heavyweight, finds himself in the Top 10 and locked into a matchup with Michael Bisping on July 7. If Boetsch is suddenly a fight or so away from knocking at Anderson Silva’s door at 185 pounds, who is to say that Shields, with a superior resume and history, cannot experience a career resurgence there, as well?

The UFC middleweight division is as wide open as the welterweight class is stacked. Promotion officials apparently thought so highly of Mark Munoz -- who is regarded by many as the current No. 3 at 185 pounds -- that they bypassed him in favor of Boetsch for a marquee matchup with Bisping at UFC 148. While Munoz is a talented fighter and even nicer guy, a signature win against Chris Leben does not a top contender make. The elephant -- or arachnid -- in the room remains 185-pound kingpin Silva. The man known as “The Spider” looks like he could keep front kicking foes into oblivion well into his 40s if he chooses, but there are no guarantees in MMA.

What if Silva’s recent shoulder woes are just a prelude to Father Time’s cruel inevitability? What if, after a spectacular knockout of Chael Sonnen in June, Silva declares himself bored with the sport and elects to ride off into the Brazilian sunset? What if he decides to go all-in for one final payday that only a super fight with St. Pierre or Jon Jones can provide?

Even if none of the above happens and Silva continues to clean out the division with breathtaking efficiency, the path to get to the middleweight champion is currently one of the promotion’s least arduous. Some combination of Boetsch-Bisping-Munoz-Okami (a second loss could prompt a divisional move from Sonnen, as well) certainly is not easy, but it is preferable to, say, Nick Diaz-Johny Hendricks-Ellenberger-Condit at welterweight.

The reign of Jones figures to shape the middleweight division in coming months, as well, because not everyone is as capable as Shields of moving up in weight. Assuming Jones’ body count continues to rise, there could very well be an influx of talent moving down. At the top of that list is Rashad Evans. If he falls to “Bones” in the latest Grudge Match of the Century at UFC 145, then it would make perfect sense for the Imperial Athletics representative to try his hand at middleweight. Evans is not exceptionally large for a light heavyweight, and “Suga” had already hinted at the move before his relationship with Jones dissolved into a bitter feud last year.

Dan Henderson has been promised a title shot of his choice by UFC President Dana White, so he will undoubtedly be watching Jones-Evans and Sonnen-Silva with a keen interest. If Silva looks mortal or Sonnen pulls an upset, it would not be surprising to see “Hendo” take that shot, even though his most recent success has been at light heavyweight.

The list goes on: no longer untouchable at 205 pounds, does anyone doubt that Lyoto Machida would instantly be worthy of Top 5 status at middleweight? There will undoubtedly be others at light heavyweight who will eventually be seeking a new address, especially if Jones picks up where he left off in 2011.

It was not all that long ago that featherweight was expected to be the destination of choice for any number of frustrated 155 pounders. Instead, lightweight remains loaded, while UFC brass is left to hunt for worthy challengers to Jose Aldo’s throne. Today, middleweight is to a fighter what Cancun is for a college student on Spring Break. It is fun and unpredictable, and the possibilities seem limitless; if the only downside is the risk of a wicked hangover, aka Silva, then so be it.

All anyone at the highest level of athletic competition wants is a shot to be the best, and if they are smart, many will start asking the same question: “If Tim Boestch can do it, why can’t I?”