UFC Fight Night 217 Beforemath: New Year, Same as the Old

The UFC is back for 2023 and we are picking up right where we left off in 2022, literally. Last year was marred by main event pullouts and injuries and ended with a card headlined by Sean Strickland. In the first event of 2023, UFC Fight Night 217, we have Kelvin Gastelum pulling out of a main event due to an injury and, get this, Strickland is stepping in to face Nassourdine Imavov on short notice. If it seems like Strickland just headlined a UFC event a month ago, that’s because he did in fact headline a UFC event a month ago. So off we go, into that cold and cruel night, into the first Beforemath edition of the year and look at “UFC Vegas 67.”

Sean Strickland: Just Do Something. Anything, Really.

Strickland had an incredibly weird 2022. He had a big rise in the rankings when he beat Jack Hermansson in a rather uneventful main event. Then he lost to Alex Pereira by that spectacular first-round knockout. He rebounded with another uneventful fight, this time a loss against Jared Cannonier which ended the UFC calendar year for 2022. Now we are back, and Strickland is in on short notice.

While his fight with Cannonier wasn’t a war, it wasn’t an easy fight for Strickland either. He took a slight lumping and one will have to wonder how that will affect him going into this fight with Imavov. While that will be something to take into consideration, it won’t be part of this analysis. Let’s presume Strickland didn’t take too much brain damage and doesn’t need time to let the brain recover, while realizing the possibility that he could get sparked.

At “UFC Vegas 67,” Strickland will want to rely on his cardio, which is one of his better assets, against Imavov. If you do a second of tape study, you’ll see that Imavov has a cardio issue and that is one of Strickland’s better attributes. Strickland can really start to run away with a fight after he sees that he’s less tired than another fighter. By no means is he a Diaz brother who has endless cardio, something we saw against Cannonier, but he will use it to his advantage when pressed to do so.

When he’s got his opponents tired, Strickland makes sure they feel like they are suffocating. Against Jack Hermansson in 2021, we saw an exaggerated example of that. Strickland had Hermansson whiffing all night and due to that, he took advantage of a more tired opponent and shined. In Figure 1 above, we see how Strickland likes to stay in the pocket while straight punching to beat his opponents to the punch. (1) It’s natural to step in on the jab, it’s day one boxing stuff if we’re being honest. But Strickland adheres to those mechanics quite well. He will step in on the jab, using the jab and the step in to get in the pocket with Hermansson, who was following him around the cage all night. (2) Now in the pocket, Strickland will stay off the center line and pivot his rear leg around to stay in the pocket but remain mobile. (3) After the pivot, Strickland will, again, use the jab again, getting more punches in on the same trip to the pocket.

While in the cage he stands with his legs straight and looks generally non-threatening, Strickland has straight punches that he likes to walk people onto. He has a decent jab. It’s not thudding like Gennady Golovkin’s or anything, but he uses it well in good spaces. His issues lie in the defensive part of the game, although he’s not totally deficient there either. It’s when Strickland finds himself in spots where his defensive maneuvers don’t work that he finds himself in trouble. Early on, Imavov will look to do just that and can succeed at it. Strickland will want to fast-track the cardio issue by working the body from the opening bell as well as the low kick to the side-on karate stance that Imavov likes to use.

With Imavov being such an in-and-out fighter, often coming in on straight lines, Strickland can feast by walking Imavov onto the straight punches he frequents so often. Strickland will undoubtedly try to do this but that puts him in harm’s way. Fortunately, Strickland is comfortable under fire and has some ways he deals with being there.

Against Cannonier, we saw Strickland deal with the forward pressure quite well early in the fight. He would let Cannonier come forward and then exit the side when he felt like Cannonier was going to unload. Figure 2 shows us just how Strickland would exit the exchanges all while threatening to walk Cannonier onto more punches. (1) Starting out, we see Cannonier pushing Strickland to the fence. (2) Knowing the type of power Cannonier has, Strickland would shift his weight to the back foot, preparing to throw the push kick. (3) The push kick did it’s job as it caused the pursuing Jared Cannonier to pause slightly and lean back and out of position to throw a meaningful strike. Strickland would (4) circle out and provide himself with cover fire in the form of a jab to get out of danger’s way.

Stick to this game plan and Sean Strickland can have success against the squirrely Imavov and take the win at UFC Vegas 67. But the man in his way is one that won’t go quietly into the night and can be a threat on the feet.

Nassourdine Imavov: A Completely Different Type of Fight

For Imavov, the new style matchup at “UFC Vegas 67” couldn’t be any more different. He went from a looping striker who will look to take you down and push the pace of a fight in Gastelum to a guy in Strickland who is essentially a glorified jab merchant. But the stakes for Imavov with Strickland are that much higher. Ranked 12th himself, Imavov went from fighting a guy who was ranked a spot below him to a guy ranked five spots higher. The stakes have never been higher for the Dagestani-by-way-of-France. Question is, can he get it done?

Imavov will want to be as economical as possible against Strickland. We already know that Strickland is hard to put away sans the Alex Pereira knockout who can knockout anyone on the planet with that left hook. Imavov doesn’t want to end up in the same position he did against Joaquim Buckley where he’s dead tired by the end of the second round. That happens with three more rounds to go and Imavov will be in a bad spot through and through. He will want to make sure that he can make his way through this long fight and last to the fifth and final bell if need be. Imavov will also be fighting at 205 pounds instead of the 185 due to the short-notice nature of this fight. The extra weight might hurt him in that department, and it might do him well to cut some of the weight if not all. Strickland is not a power puncher by any stretch of the imagination, so giving up a bit of size might be OK.

Let us set aside Strickland’s fight with Pereira, which we went into on the Beforemath issue for the Cannonier fight. If you want to know more about how that was set up, it could be a good bit of extra homework. We can expect Imavov to look at the Cannonier fight for cannon fodder to throw at the tough Strickland. Here are some things we can find.

Cannonier found a lot of success by using Strickland’s predictability against him. In Figure 3, we see how Cannonier saw what Strickland would do against the fence and exploited it. We saw above that Strickland doesn’t like being against the fence and when presented with the opportunity he will exit. Here, Cannonier has Strickland against the fence and gives Strickland enough breathing room to feel comfortable to exit. (1) Cannonier is purposely in southpaw here, giving Strickland a bias towards his power side on the exit. As he did earlier, Cannonier knew that Strickland would jab on his way out. (2) With a slight dip to his left as if to throw a left hook, the same left hook Pereira knocked him out with, Strickland jabs and exits to his left. Congratulations, Strickland, you’ve activated Cannonier’s trap card. With the rear leg, the power leg, Cannonier smashes into Strickland, beating up the leg as he exited the fence.

Imavov will need to anticipate where Strickland is going to go and bait him into going where he wants. It’s not hard as Strickland has been susceptible to influence as we saw against Pereira and Cannonier. The low kicks and body shots should be a point of attack for Imavov. He needs to avoid going head hunting. There are far better ways to hurt Strickland aside from going lick for lick with him and wasting a lot of energy to get a 1:1 strike ratio. Strickland has a problem checking leg kicks. Cannonier, Hermansson, and Uriah Hall all had loads of success kicking the legs of Strickland. The only fighter in his last four that didn’t land double digit kicks on Strickland was Alex Pereira. He was 8 of 11 and should the fight have gone on longer, would have eclipsed that.

Imavov won’t have the power to knock out Strickland in the same manner that Pereira did. Nobody really has that power unless it’s Francis Ngannou. But the ability to creatively strike is important and Imavov is quite creative. In Figure 4 we can see how Imavov, while coming in and out on a straight line, can mix things up. We know Strickland has a problem slapping down at anything that’s shown to him—see the Pereira fight. Imavov utilizes feints as a major part of his game and will look to use that to his advantage at “UFC Vegas 67.”

Against Ian Heinisch, we can see Imavov step in and (1) show Heinisch the jab. (2) Heinisch, overloaded with all the inputs Imavov has shown him, slaps down at the mere thought of a strike, just as Imavov intended. (3) Imavov follows up on the reaction from Heinisch with a rear uppercut. Heinisch slaps that down too and uses the parry to exit to the left. Imavov reads that exit, (4) throws a left at Heinisch and lands clean. Imavov can use this type of approach to overload Strickland, land some clean shots and hopefully keep the cardio gap close.

For Imavov, this fight means he’s in the elite of the middleweight division. There are tons of awesome fights with strikers at the top of this division that could be fun for Imavov. Whittaker, Adesanya, and even Pereira could be fun for his side-on karate stance that would make you feel like you’re watching a very realistic episode of “Cobra Kai.” But he doesn’t get there without a win over Strickland, the least karate dude I know.