The Bottom Line: UFC 194 Oddly Shaping Up as Referendum on Jose Aldo
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On the surface, it makes no sense. Jose Aldo has dominated the featherweight division with an iron fist for over six years, and he hasn’t lost a fight in over 10. He has already established himself as one of the best fighters in the history of the sport. It is his opponent who hasn’t fought the same level of opposition. It is his opponent who has run his mouth unceasingly and needs to back up those words in the cage. By any measure, the pressure should squarely be on Conor McGregor in this fight. Yet, as UFC 194 fast approaches, Aldo finds himself in a strange position -- justifying a greatness that was long ago established.
Aldo’s odd predicament is a testament to the psychological games
played by his opponent. From the moment McGregor emerged in the
Ultimate Fighting Championship featherweight division, he has
been lobbing insults Aldo’s way. Those varied insults have come
from every direction, amplified by the media’s fascination with the
Irish superstar.
McGregor has labeled Aldo old and vulnerable to a hungry young lion. Never mind that Aldo hasn’t turned 30 and McGregor is less than two years his junior, it has led to questions about whether years of tough fights have taken a toll on the Brazilian champion. There’s nothing to suggest that’s the case, but the question has continually been raised. Aldo needs to show he’s still as good as he has ever been.
When Aldo pulled out of the original scheduled fight against McGregor at UFC 189, it fed fuel to the fire. McGregor claimed he would have fought with Aldo’s rib injury. UFC President Dana White, perhaps frustrated by Aldo’s propensity for pulling out of fights over the years, threw him under the bus by questioning the severity of his injury. Aldo’s toughness was challenged, so the pressure is on him to fight at UFC 194 even if he suffers a physical setback in his final preparation for the bout.
The portrayal of Aldo as old, scared and injury-prone seems to have influenced the public to some degree, as McGregor is the clear betting favorite over the perennial champion at all the books. The odds are nearly 2-to-1 in some. There are good reasons for one to believe in McGregor, who matches up well stylistically with Aldo. However, it’s hard to believe that the odds haven’t been influenced by McGregor’s words making believers of many fans.
It’s a big potential problem for Aldo and his legacy that McGregor has garnered so much attention. Many have rightly focused on how McGregor will make Aldo a lot more money in the short term. A win over McGregor could finally turn Aldo into a pay-per-view attraction after years of trying. However, there’s a flip side to that. If Aldo doesn’t win, he becomes the man who reigned during a period in which there was little mainstream interest in his division. For all his success as a fighter inside the Octagon, he could become a footnote to the larger public.
That isn’t the case for his opponent. McGregor has now reached a level of fame and star power where he can recover from losses and remain a popular figure. He can even call himself a former champion, either way, after his victory over Chad Mendes at UFC 189. A win is of course extremely important for his legacy, but he will be in good shape regardless. The same cannot be said for Aldo, the rare champion who has much more to lose than the challenger.
In a way, it’s sort of apropos. Aldo was criticized for years because he made little effort to learn English in the way that other Brazilian fighters did to appeal to the UFC’s powerful English-speaking market. Not being able to fire back in the press effectively wasn’t a big deal when matched with Frankie Edgar, but then all of a sudden the hot star in his division was one of the biggest trash talkers in the history of the sport. For those who criticized Aldo for not learning English, this was the ultimate punishment.
With Aldo limited in his ability to return fire in the English-speaking press, he was left like a politician with no financial backing in a post-Citizens United world. The opposition got to completely shape the narrative of the fight with an unending barrage of negative ads. Unsurprisingly, the story of the fight has become about Aldo’s vulnerabilities rather than those of McGregor.
Luckily for Aldo, he has one massive trump card. Fighters can talk all day and night, but the final word comes from the fight itself. It doesn’t matter how much of a beating he takes in the press tour if in the end he puts the beating on McGregor in the cage. That’s what has gotten Aldo by for so many years. Still, a troubling question lingers. Suppose Aldo doesn’t win. What then?
On the surface, it makes no sense. Jose Aldo has dominated the featherweight division with an iron fist for over six years, and he hasn’t lost a fight in over 10. He has already established himself as one of the best fighters in the history of the sport. It is his opponent who hasn’t fought the same level of opposition. It is his opponent who has run his mouth unceasingly and needs to back up those words in the cage. By any measure, the pressure should squarely be on Conor McGregor in this fight. Yet, as UFC 194 fast approaches, Aldo finds himself in a strange position -- justifying a greatness that was long ago established.
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McGregor has labeled Aldo old and vulnerable to a hungry young lion. Never mind that Aldo hasn’t turned 30 and McGregor is less than two years his junior, it has led to questions about whether years of tough fights have taken a toll on the Brazilian champion. There’s nothing to suggest that’s the case, but the question has continually been raised. Aldo needs to show he’s still as good as he has ever been.
Even more harshly, McGregor has accused Aldo of being scared to
take the fight. It’s an allegation that takes a lot of guts to
make, given how Aldo has been fighting the best fighters in the
world in his weight class for years. Yet McGregor has persisted,
suggesting Aldo may not show up for the UFC 194 main event on Dec.
12. If Aldo is scared, he has a funny way of showing it, literally
laughing in the Irishman’s face when McGregor tried to intimidate
him.
When Aldo pulled out of the original scheduled fight against McGregor at UFC 189, it fed fuel to the fire. McGregor claimed he would have fought with Aldo’s rib injury. UFC President Dana White, perhaps frustrated by Aldo’s propensity for pulling out of fights over the years, threw him under the bus by questioning the severity of his injury. Aldo’s toughness was challenged, so the pressure is on him to fight at UFC 194 even if he suffers a physical setback in his final preparation for the bout.
The portrayal of Aldo as old, scared and injury-prone seems to have influenced the public to some degree, as McGregor is the clear betting favorite over the perennial champion at all the books. The odds are nearly 2-to-1 in some. There are good reasons for one to believe in McGregor, who matches up well stylistically with Aldo. However, it’s hard to believe that the odds haven’t been influenced by McGregor’s words making believers of many fans.
It’s a big potential problem for Aldo and his legacy that McGregor has garnered so much attention. Many have rightly focused on how McGregor will make Aldo a lot more money in the short term. A win over McGregor could finally turn Aldo into a pay-per-view attraction after years of trying. However, there’s a flip side to that. If Aldo doesn’t win, he becomes the man who reigned during a period in which there was little mainstream interest in his division. For all his success as a fighter inside the Octagon, he could become a footnote to the larger public.
That isn’t the case for his opponent. McGregor has now reached a level of fame and star power where he can recover from losses and remain a popular figure. He can even call himself a former champion, either way, after his victory over Chad Mendes at UFC 189. A win is of course extremely important for his legacy, but he will be in good shape regardless. The same cannot be said for Aldo, the rare champion who has much more to lose than the challenger.
In a way, it’s sort of apropos. Aldo was criticized for years because he made little effort to learn English in the way that other Brazilian fighters did to appeal to the UFC’s powerful English-speaking market. Not being able to fire back in the press effectively wasn’t a big deal when matched with Frankie Edgar, but then all of a sudden the hot star in his division was one of the biggest trash talkers in the history of the sport. For those who criticized Aldo for not learning English, this was the ultimate punishment.
With Aldo limited in his ability to return fire in the English-speaking press, he was left like a politician with no financial backing in a post-Citizens United world. The opposition got to completely shape the narrative of the fight with an unending barrage of negative ads. Unsurprisingly, the story of the fight has become about Aldo’s vulnerabilities rather than those of McGregor.
Luckily for Aldo, he has one massive trump card. Fighters can talk all day and night, but the final word comes from the fight itself. It doesn’t matter how much of a beating he takes in the press tour if in the end he puts the beating on McGregor in the cage. That’s what has gotten Aldo by for so many years. Still, a troubling question lingers. Suppose Aldo doesn’t win. What then?
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