Prime Picks: UFC 301 ‘Pantoja vs. Erceg’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship built its first post-UFC 300 pay-per-view with the sole purpose of thrilling a home crowd. Taking to Rio de Janeiro for the first time in more than a year, matchmaking was intentional, as each bout features a Brazilian against a foreign opponent. The lines reflect this billing accordingly, as most local fighters are favored, with five currently available above -400. Join the UFC 301 edition of Prime Picks, as we swing from tree to tree in the crowded show, grabbing hold of a vine of the current champion while not letting go of one of a former kingpin.

STRAIGHT-UP CASH

Alexandre Pantoja (-185)

The rise of Steve Erceg has been as unexpected as it has been speedy, and there remain questions as to how he will perform against someone in the Top 5 or higher. By crushing Matt Schnell, Erceg earned a chance to try; it just so happens that the number in that five was one due to a strange flyweight title picture. The Aussie answered what would happen when his bell was rung, as Schnell cleanly connected on him in the first round of their encounter. He did not lose his composure. Instead, he took the necessary time to clear his head by pursuing a takedown and returning to business. Unfortunately for Erceg, in his fourth UFC appearance, he runs into the buzz saw that is Pantoja, and there is value in “The Cannibal” until he reaches -200, if not the mid-200 range.

The 28-year-old Erceg has the energy reserves to go three hard rounds, as evidenced by his matches against Alessandro Costa and David Dvorak—the latter on short notice—but those appearances saw him largely in the driver’s seat. The onus will be on “Astro Boy” to push Pantoja back, making the champion uncomfortable fighting off the back foot while measuring his stunningly effective jab. The jab can help him disrupt the high-volume, high-intensity Pantoja as he leaps into action, and he can set up additional strikes behind it. If he ever hurts Pantoja, allowing him to recover would be the worst idea, as the Brazilian has shown to come back strong from both fatigue and damage.

Pantoja is as fearless as he is tough, and he can surge forward hurling strikes, only to suddenly change levels where he takes you to the mat and secures a body triangle around your back in the blink of an eye. Scrambles do not bother Pantoja in the slightest, as he threatens with any submission he can find. It can work against him if he decides to play jiu-jitsu for too long rather than advance position, and Erceg could put him on his back and maintain top control. For Erceg to win, he will have to be perfect for the entirety of the fight. On the other hand, Pantoja does not necessarily have to be on his game for all 25 minutes, and he even intentionally takes time off to ensure his wild and crazy strategy does not burn him out. The Aussie may be a champion one day, but not yet.

STRAIGHT-UP PASS

Jonathan Martinez (-145)

MMA retirements never stick. When Jose Aldo said farewell to the sport at 35, many shrugged it off, given that losing to Merab Dvalishvili was his first setback since vying for the bantamweight throne two years earlier. Aldo proved he still wanted to hit people by leapfrogging into boxing, and a questionable draw with Jeremy Stephens followed by a one-sided win at home showed Aldo did not slip too many gears. Back in MMA again, he faces what some have oversimplified as a younger version of himself—an unfair and inaccurate comparison other than Martinez’ predilection of leg kicks, a famed Aldo weapon. “The King of Rio” showed before coming up short to Dvalishvili that he could hang with Top 10 talent, with victories over Marlon Vera, Pedro Munhoz and Rob Font nothing to sneeze at. The younger Martinez could pull off the win, but a straight kickboxing match against the greatest featherweight of all-time is a dangerous proposition.

Unfortunately, the UFC could not put together Aldo-Dominick Cruz instead of this Martinez fight, and it does not make the most sense unless the Factory X rep puts it all together to make a run at gold. Beating Aldo would be a massive feather in his cap, even if the Brazilian is not imminently relevant at 135 pounds. For “Dragon” to pull this off, he must be the more active of the two, beating Aldo to the punch while not getting drawn into a straight kick-for-kick encounter. With Aldo’s prowess in his lower limbs, he accurately and viciously strikes with them but also has the wherewithal to deflect those same strikes aimed at his legs. Neither Munhoz nor Vera could get going in that regard, and Aldo could shut down and make Martinez pay for naked kicks. Aldo is primed to pull off an upset and one more triumphant performance in front of legions of his fans. There are better options on the card than to put scratch down on Martinez.

’DOG WILL HUNT

Anthony Smith (+425)

Aldo very nearly qualified for this list, but given how many wide lines are on display ahead of this event, he was beaten out by other names. Paul Craig was the initial name to throw on this section, as he and Gerald Meerschaert are perhaps the reason that this category was created in the first place. Unfortunately for Craig, he will be met by a well-schooled judoka and Brazilian jiu-jitsu player in Caio Borralho who does not make the type of mental lapse the Scotsman can capitalize on. Instead, we turn to a former title challenger and ultraviolent contender in Smith, who, despite 15 stoppage losses on his ledger, can still pull off wins over legitimate opposition with grit and determination, if nothing else. At these odds, “Lionheart” is worth a swing, and Smith Wins Inside Distance at +650 could also merit consideration.

The 26-year-old unbeaten Petrino is quietly working his way up the light heavyweight ladder, but it is a mighty step up from Tyson Pedro to Smith. The steps have been gradual and intentional so that he does not bite off more than he can chew as he continues to grow and develop. Solid fundamentals and a decent amount of power behind his swings help, although he does not pick his shots as carefully as he should and has gotten stung in the past. Should Petrino get the fight down and start dropping ground-and-pound, he could maul Smith and look all of the -600 favorite he purports to be. With his back against the wall, Smith’s craftiness and ability to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat make him an especially hazardous foe. Those to beat the Factory X product have been elite talents, and Petrino has the chance to cement himself as one of those if he can validate the bettors pushing him up so high.

AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION

Aldo-Martinez Lasts Over 1.5 Rounds (-525)

Smith-Petrino Ends Inside Distance (-230)

Karolina Kowalkiewicz-Iasmin Lucindo Lasts Over 1.5 Rounds (-400)

Total Odds: +114

With some favorites at the prohibitive range—unless coupled in a parlay, which is an option—the options slim down, and these three make sense and come together with a theme. As we often present in this three-piece accumulator, time is the measure in which we select our plays. These prop bets are widely available at every legitimate sportsbook, compared to some more narrow options like bouts starting certain rounds or a competitor finishing the fight in the latter half of the match. Two of those will be fights discussed above, providing different angles to approach that supplement and do not conflict with our picks. The first is between Aldo and Martinez, making all the sense in the world that this is a prolonged affair that at least reaches 7:30. With Aldo needing to get his footing beneath him again and neither man a quick-strike knockout artist of late, the durability of these gentlemen mean it will last a while.

Like Aldo and Martinez, the expectation is that Smith-Petrino will last long. Unlike that featherweight contest, conventional wisdom and history dictate that this light heavyweight clash will end violently and suddenly. With the line of -230 for a stoppage of any kind, it does not need to be drilled down to an under of 2.5 or 1.5 rounds and instead is the key to getting this trio into plus-money territory. Smith maintains a finish rate of 92%, and conversely, he has only heard the final bell in four of his 19 losses. Petrino can punch an opponent’s lights out or establish top control while he rains down fire and brimstone until the referee pulls him off. Whether it is Smith springing the unexpected victory or Petrino punishing the aging contender, a stoppage of any kind is all that is needed.

Kicking off this parlay is a preliminary matchup between a former title challenger in Kowalkiewicz and a woman 16 years her junior—around the same gap as Roxanne Modafferi-Maycee Barber. The Polish woman has found new life training at American Top Team with former opponent Joanna Jedrzejczyk and has developed new facets of her game at the ripe age of 38. Despite that, her matches have tended to go long, especially when getting her hand raised. The same can be said for the youngster, who has hit this over in all three appearances on the major stage. Tougher opposition likely leads to longer matches, and the victor is immaterial as long as it passes the midpoint of the second stanza. These three selections tie together for a return that will double the input without anything objectionable, and that is the way to take home the gold.