UFC Fight Night 28 Preview

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Middleweights

Rafael Natal (16-4-1, 4-2-1 UFC) vs. Tor Troeng (16-4-1, 1-0 UFC)

The Matchup: It is difficult to get a handle on Troeng based on his Octagon debut against Adam Cella at UFC on Fuel TV 9. While the 30-year-old Swede was smooth in landing a takedown, transitioning to his opponent’s back and then using strikes to create an opening for a fight-ending rear-naked choke, Cella -- best known for suffering a cringe-worthy knockout loss to Uriah Hall on “The Ultimate Fighter 17” -- is probably not UFC-caliber at this point.

Still, prior to his reality show appearance, “The Hammer” compiled a solid resume while competing primarily in his native Sweden. The 6-foot-2 inch middleweight’s striking arsenal is well-rounded, and he uses his long frame well to implement his submission game, especially from top position. However, a loss to Thales Leites in 2010 exposed Troeng as vulnerable to a high-level grappler, as the Brazilian was able to pass his opponent’s guard with relative ease en route to winning via rear-naked choke in the second round.

Natal, who has won four of his last five after a shaky start to his UFC career, is the type of fighter who can capitalize if Troeng has not improved his guard. A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black-belt, “Sapo” has an extremely heavy top game and can wear down Troeng by constantly looking to pass guard. Like Troeng, Natal is not nearly as effective from his back, but fairly stout takedown defense makes him a far more difficult target than was Cella. Natal is also the more active striker, and he has enough power to give his opponent pause. Additionally, the Gracie Fusion representative can land knees if the two combatants clinch. Occasionally Natal is prone to overconfidence, and he can get wild with his strikes while dropping his hands. Troeng should look to counter if this occurs.

The Pick: Natal has experienced issues with conditioning in the past, and Troeng can test his gas tank by stuffing takedowns and keeping his foe guessing on the feet. Still, in a closely matched fight, it is tough to pick against the Brazilian on home soil. Natal takes this by decision or submission.

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