UFC 165 ‘Jones vs. Gustafsson’ Preview

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Middleweights

Costas Philippou (12-2, 5-1 UFC) vs. Francis Carmont (21-7, 5-0 UFC)

The Matchup: A pair of would-be contenders riding five-fight UFC winning streaks square off here, with the victor looking to further establish himself in the 185-pound division. Despite his recent run of success, Carmont should consider himself fortunate to have beaten Tom Lawlor and Lorenz Larkin in his two most recent outings. The Tristar Gym export offered little in the way of offense in either bout but apparently did enough to find favor in the eyes of the judges. Carmont is going to have to improve on those performances eventually, because relying on fortuitous scorecards is a dangerous way to live.

Philippou, meanwhile, has not competed since a third-round technical knockout triumph over Tim Boetsch at UFC 155 in December. After a rocky opening round, he relied on his stingy takedown defense and heavy ground-and-pound to overcome Boetsch, who appeared to be hampered by a broken hand suffered sometime in the initial five minutes and an eye poke in the second stanza. Regardless of the circumstances, credit Philippou for taking advantage of the opening.

The taller fighter with an edge in reach and strength, Carmont should take note of what Boetsch did well, including decent clinch work and a front kick that dropped Philippou toward the end of the first round. At times, “Limitless” has proven capable of landing punches and kicks in combination to set up takedowns, and he also uses knees effectively in tie-ups. While a five-inch reach advantage will allow Carmont chances to set up various kicks, he will not want to trade for extended periods of time with Philippou, a former professional boxer with quick and powerful hands.

To avoid being sucked into a cardio-draining clinchfest, Philippou must circle and utilize good footwork so Carmont cannot trap him against the fence. Despite his imposing appearance, Carmont is not especially efficient on takedown attempts. He could struggle to get Philippou, who has a good sprawl and balance, to the mat consistently.

The Pick: There is always the chance that Carmont dictates the tempo of this bout through clinches, takedowns and ground-and-pound, but nothing in recent performances indicates he will be able to do that against an opponent who has defended 22 of the last 24 takedowns attempted against him. Philippou relies on solid defensive wrestling and quick combinations to win via decision or TKO.

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