Preview: UFC Fight Night 130 ‘Thompson vs. Till’

Featherweights
Jason Knight (20-4) vs. Makwan Amirkhani (13-3)
Odds: Knight (-155), Amirkhani (+135)

Two fighters with scintillating highlight reels but recent bouts of inconsistency square off here. Knight took the featherweight division by storm following a short-notice setback to the infinitely more experienced Tatsuya Kawajiri. His four-fight winning streak - completed in less than a year - culminated in stoppages of Alex Caceres and Chas Skelly. But he rocketed up the rankings too quickly, and Ricardo Lamas sent him plummeting back to Earth by first-round knockout just two and a half months later. A lethargic setback to heavy kicker Gabriel Benitez followed. The ridiculous activity probably had nearly as much to do with his slide as the leap up in competition.

“The Kid” (I prefer play-by-play man Jon Anik’s “Mississippi Mean”) is aggressive everywhere, charging forward behind bunches of punches and hunting for submissions as soon as the fight hits the mat. Knight can attack at any range. He likes to pressure with long, straight punches and a variety of stabbing kicks, forcing foes to give up real estate or plant and throw with him. He has zero compunction eating bombs to deliver his own, knocking out Skelly with a cross, lead uppercut combination in the midst of an exchange. Knight’s wrestling is only so-so, but like everything else about his game, it is high-output. He completes only 32% of his attempted takedowns and stuffs 52 percent of opponents’, but he still lands 1.77 takedowns per fight on average. Unsurprisingly, his manic pace tends to tire him out by the third round.

Amirkhani has his own gas tank issues. “Mr. Finland” has taken over a year off prior to his last couple fights, and that inactivity likely isn’t helping his cardio. The SBG Ireland rep boasts Finnish national championships in both Greco-Roman and freestyle wrestling. While he typically comes sprinting out of his corner with flying knees and jumping kicks, he soon settles into wrestling mode. We rarely get to see much of his striking, but in the usually limited time he is at range, the southpaw fires single crosses and front kicks, waiting for an opportunity to shoot.

His gameplans are takedown-heavy, but lay-and-pray is not his modus operandi. The Iranian-born Finn is a diverse and aggressive submission grappler, boasting nine tapouts across his 13 victories, most of them by a variety of chokes. But he does not have a finish outside the first round, speaking to his questionable cardio. He floats exceptionally well and has great balance, making him difficult to shake. Allen was able to get on top only after Amirkhani went to his back trying to finish guillotine and D’Arce chokes. He has solid submission defense of his own, too. Mike Wilkinson rolled him into a mounted guillotine, but Amirkhani stayed calm, gradually freed himself, and reestablished top position.

While Knight doesn’t have great cardio himself, I trust him a little more in that area. Amirkhani tired down the stretch versus Allen despite controlling top position for much of the contest. Knight perhaps took too much damage in too short a time, prematurely eroding his chin. But Amirkhani is unlikely to test him there outside the first 30 seconds. And while I expect “Mr. Finland” to take Knight down repeatedly early, I also expect “Hick Diaz” (another absolutely beautiful sobriquet) to make him work constantly. Amirkhani will fade and Knight will turn up the pressure, taking a come-from-behind decision.

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