Strikeforce ‘Diaz vs. Daley’ Preview

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Lightweights
Shinya Aoki vs. Lyle Beerbohm

The Matchup: Aoki is one of the few fighters in the game able to compete at a world-class level, essentially as a one-tool guy. His standup is merely a rumor and his wrestling is average, but his submissions are as good as anyone’s in MMA. He is perfectly content to let opponents put him down and take their chances in his amazing guard, where he uncorks a dizzying assault of submissions.

Beerbohm made a splash as an emerging face in Strikeforce, with wins over Duane Ludwig and Vitor "Shaolin" Ribeiro. In his last fight, he was decisioned by Pat Healy, as he was outgrappled in spots and ran out of answers against the tough veteran. A wrestling-based fighter still in the nascent phases of his early career, the jury is still out on whether Beerbohm’s loss will prove a learning experience or reveal his competitive ceiling.

Beerbohm’s standup is willing if not fully developed, which puts him ahead of Aoki, who seems to regard striking merely as a means to get the fight to the ground. The decision of when to shoot and force a mat battle will be key in this matchup for Beerbohm. There is the chance he could sprawl and brawl, using shots to frustrate Aoki while denying him a chance to unleash his marvelous ground game. It would probably be a smart decision, especially early, when quick submissions are much easier before both guys get sweaty and fatigued.

At some point, Aoki will likely make the decision to pull guard if Beerbohm refuses to shoot, and that is where “Fancy Pants” will have to punish the Japanese star, evade and stay standing.

Healy, a tough veteran, showed that Beerbohm may be a little undersized for lightweight. He also threatened him positionally and with some submission attempts that Aoki would likely finish. Aoki’s biggest weakness in the U.S. is that he cannot wear his patented colorful pants, which are helpful in keeping friction to land submissions.

Against Gilbert Melendez, Aoki was stifled for five one-sided rounds. Beerbohm is not Melendez, but he can imitate that style for 15 minutes if he plays his cards correctly.

The Pick: Aoki is just a tad too experienced and savvy and will land a submission after a lively battle, taking the win in the second round.

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