Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Belfort vs. Gastelum’

Lightweights

Edson Barboza (18-4) vs. Beneil Dariush (14-2)

THE MATCHUP: This just might be the best fight on this card. Barboza began his UFC career as a talented kickboxer, but only in the last two years has he really begun to put it all together. Barboza has always preferred a long distance, but he used to pursue it by backpedaling in straight lines. When he ran out of space -- every out-fighter, no matter how good, does run out of space eventually -- Barboza would plant his feet and trade. So much of his concentration went into these exchanges that Barboza was also prone to watching his work, standing around after throwing and giving his opponent an opportunity to hit him, hard.

These problems are largely solved now. Barboza’s chin has not gotten any tougher, but he is better about protecting it; and thanks in part to his relationship with a sports psychologist, he no longer reacts with obvious panic when it does get touched. Indeed, “discipline” is the word which best describes the new Barboza. He is constantly moving from side to side, peppering his opponent with stinging jabs and withering kicks. Barboza does not carry huge power in his hands, but his kicks are some of the most dangerous in the lightweight division. To wit, Barboza is the only fighter in the UFC to have finished different opponents via head kick, body kick and leg kick.

Skill-wise, Dariush is not unlike Barboza. He has a sharp jab of his own, and his round kicks are punishing in their own right. Dariush usually turns his tools to the task of pressure, however, and will happily push through boxing range and into the clinch, where Barboza would attempt to disengage and reset. Dariush has shown a great talent for clinch striking in recent fights. Not only does he succeed when he can get both hands on his opponent and throw knees but also as the clinches are broken, when Dariush is happy to bomb away with vicious hooks and elbows.

Dariush likely has an advantage on the ground, but Barboza has only been taken down two times in the last three years. Barboza responds to takedown threats just as Jose Aldo would. He maintains distance, angles to protect his hips and effortlessly stuffs all but the most powerful shots. Dariush has never taken down a defensive wrestler of Barboza’s caliber and will most likely struggle to do so. Expect this one to play out on the feet.

THE ODDS: Barboza (-168), Dariush (+143)

THE PICK: Dariush’s strategy against Rashid Magomedov was essentially to pressure no matter what. Dariush sought to throw the first and last strikes of every exchange, all while pushing forward and controlling the pace and location of the fight. That same strategy could work here -- in any case, Dariush does not want to engage in an even kickboxing battle at range -- but Barboza has a few tricks up his sleeve. For one, he is blindingly fast. Not only light on his feet, Barboza will be able to spear Dariush with punches and slash him with kicks even as the Kings MMA rep goes on the offensive. Dariush succeeds because he is extremely confident. However, Barboza is not so easy to break as he once was, and he might take the pep out of Dariush’s step before long. The pick is Barboza by third-round TKO.

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