Preview: UFC Fight Night 159 ‘Rodriguez vs. Stephens’

Flyweights

Askar Askarov (10-0) vs. Brandon Moreno (15-5)

ODDS: Askarov (-150), Moreno (+130)

Moreno was actually the headliner the last time the Octagon was in Mexico, but the ensuing two years have not been kind to him. His initial rise through the flyweight ranks came completely out of nowhere. He was the bottom seed on the all-flyweight season of “The Ultimate Fighter” and was quickly eliminated, but that allowed him to take a late-notice spot on the main UFC roster before the season had even finished airing. In his debut, “The Assassin Baby” authored one of the biggest upsets of 2016, tapping then-surging contender Louis Smolka with a guillotine choke in the first round. That immediately made Moreno a flyweight to notice, and after two more wins -- they were highlighted by a comeback club-and-sub of Dustin Ortiz -- he was in a spot to main event Mexico City against Sergio Pettis. That is where the wheels began to fall off. Moreno had his moments, particularly the early grappling exchanges, but Pettis eventually warmed up and dominated the balance of the bout. Moreno has his talents -- a venomous submission game tops the list -- but the Pettis fight showed that Moreno’s fundamentals are a work in progress and that he is the type of fighter who relies on big moments rather than a round-winning process. Much the same happened in Moreno’s next fight against Alexandre Pantoja, and from there, he was surprisingly part of the UFC’s flyweight purge, even despite his status as a color commentator for the promotion in Mexico. However, just as quickly, the UFC re-signed Moreno after one fight outside of the Octagon, as the company now apparently cares about both the flyweight division and the potential for a Mexican star, at least at the moment. As a result, Moreno is back in a prominent spot here, though he gets a tough draw against the debuting Askarov.

The UFC’s signing of Askarov was one of the first signs that its flyweight division had new life, as he was one of the best prospects available on the market. He is your typical high-level Russian prospect, consistently tested against tough competition, which makes Askarov’s undefeated record all the more impressive. Askarov also has a bit of a Russian fighting style, backing up a powerful single-strike approach on the feet with a strong wrestling and submission game. It is far from a sure thing -- Magomed Bibulatov has underachieved with a similar approach during his UFC tenure -- but there is a lot to like, and Askarov should provide some vital new blood as the UFC’s flyweight relaunch shakes itself out.

While Moreno’s style is predicated on big moments, the good news is that a matchup with Askarov should be a fun affair that allows him a bunch of opportunities to have those big moments. On the off chance that this winds up as a kickboxing match, Moreno’s volume -- no matter how fast and loose it may be -- might just be enough to win rounds against Askarov’s more patient approach. Though Askarov should be the stronger wrestler, he is far from a lockdown control artist, which should allow Moreno to initiate some scrambles in grappling exchanges. With that said, Askarov is also a comfortable scrambler and should generally be able to press his wrestling advantage, even if he is continually having to fight for control. Moreno could easily find his counterpart’s neck, but the pick is Askarov via decision.

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