Preview: UFC 211 ‘Miocic vs. Dos Santos 2’

Welterweights

Demian Maia (24-6) vs. Jorge Masvidal (35-11)

THE MATCHUP: This fight should be a five-rounder, and it is not an easy one to predict. Frankly, it is an unfortunate turn of events for Maia, who has the strongest case for a shot at the welterweight title and yet cannot seem to get that fight booked. Instead, he takes on a resurgent Masvidal, a dangerous and highly experienced striker with a superbly well-rounded game. If Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza’s recent loss --under very similar circumstances -- does not worry Maia at least a little bit, then he is a more confident man than most.

As noted, Masvidal is a striker by trade and more of a boxer than anything else. His bread-and-butter is his jab, a quick, snapping punch that sets up some blistering combinations. After forcing his opponent to cover up, Masvidal likes to dig to the liver with his left hook. Like Whittaker, the effectiveness of Masvidal’s hands serves as a convenient smokescreen for the fact that he is also a dangerous kicker. The most important change Masvidal has made to his game in recent years has been an increased focus on aggression. Though once he was content to coast in close fights, Masvidal has been throwing at a much higher clip in recent fights and forcing the issue by pressuring his opponents into the fence, where his lightning-quick combination punching becomes a serious threat.

The question is whether Masvidal will utilize this newfound aggression against Maia or whether he will seek to maintain distance and score points from the outside. The latter would be a rational choice, but Maia does not need an aggressive opponent to score takedowns. Maia’s chain wrestling is outstanding, and he will happily flow from one takedown attempt to another once he has his hands on Masvidal’s legs. Masvidal might be better served to pressure Maia, forcing him to shoot reactively rather than letting him set up his own entries. Because Maia is a pressure fighter himself, this could throw a serious wrench in his game plan. As a man who has often been criticized for fighting too defensively, however, “Gamebred” might have a hard time convincing himself to take any steps toward Maia’s range.

Consider this: Maia has absorbed 13 significant strikes in his last four fights combined. Averaged together, Neil Magny, Gunnar Nelson, Matt Brown and Carlos Condit land 3.39 significant strikes per minute, so in the 39 minutes these men spent in the cage with Maia, statistics dictate they should have landed somewhere in the neighborhood of 132 significant strikes. That is a fact so astounding it borders on the unbelievable, and that tells you everything you need to know about how well Maia forces his fight on his opponents. Masvidal is a stronger wrestler than most of Maia’s foes, with a takedown defense rate of 79 percent. He should also take confidence from the fact that eight years and 22 fights have elapsed since his last submission loss. However, this truth cannot be denied: Maia’s grappling truly is on another level, and he knows it.

THE ODDS: Masvidal (-115), Maia (-105)

THE PICK: Masvidal is certainly a better defensive wrestler than either Condit or Brown, but is he better than Nelson? Is he better than Jon Fitch? Maia took down Fitch seven times. Perhaps more impressively, he only needed to take down Nelson twice to control him for the better part of 15 minutes. Masvidal is certainly not easy to put down, but he has never faced a wrestler or grappler on Maia’s level, nor has he dealt with a man with such single-minded focus; and though he is a strong defender of takedowns, his tall stance forces him to fight off shots from the clinch rather than thwarting them before they can take root. Masvidal has every chance of making this fight look like Maia’s scrap with Rory MacDonald, but even “The Canadian Psycho” barely managed to escape the Brazilian’s grasp. The pick is Maia by unanimous decision.

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