Picking & Grinning: UFC 129 Prelims

---

The UFC 129 preliminary card is examined by Sherdog.com staff. The bouts will split mediums as several bouts stream live on the UFC’s Facebook page at 6 p.m. ET and will be followed by a Spike TV lead-in to the pay-per-view.

Rory MacDonald vs. Nate Diaz

Brian Knapp: This might be the most interesting matchup on the entire card. MacDonald has a world of talent, but one has to wonder how much the beating he absorbed from Carlos Condit took out of him. Diaz has his well-documented issues stopping takedowns. If MacDonald, by far the more athletic of the two, can put him on the floor and control him from the top, that will be his clearest path to victory. MacDonald by decision.

Lutfi Sariahmed: This is certainly a step up in competition for MacDonald, but he has the tools to win this fight. Remember he was winning his bout with Carlos Condit two rounds to none going into the third before Condit exploded in the third. Give me MacDonald in an upset.

Tomasz Marciniak: I think MacDonald has more power in his punches, even if his volume isn't up to Diaz's, and his strikes are clean and technical. I also think MacDonald can have success closing the distance and muscling Diaz to the ground; and seeing how top position is overvalued in the eyes of most judges, that might be a vary handy way of racking up points. It's not an easy comeback fight by any means, but I favor MacDonald to get the judges nod.

Kyle Watson vs. John Makdessi

Tony Loiseleur: Kyle Watson is a little too stiff, a little too slow, and a little too hittable to win here. I see John Makdessi scoring with a lot of fancy spinning and side kicks and a stinging jab. Watson may be able to throw some good knees in the clinch, but in those instances I expect Makdessi to quickly disengage and continue impressively racking up the points until the eventual decision.

Tristen Critchfield: Early in his career, Watson suffered quick knockout losses to Spencer Fisher and Bart Palaszewski, but it's been almost six years since he's been finished in a fight. Makdessi displayed the kind of dynamic striking in a victory over Pat Audinwood at UFC 124 that could give Watson some problems. The Ultimate Fighter 12 alum has enough standup to be effective, however, and his BJJ exceeds anything Makdessi has displayed on the ground to date. Watson will avoid getting caught and eventually defeat the Canadian by submission.

Guilherme Pinheiro: Makdessi is the better fighter overall and I think he doesn’t let this one go the distance. Expect him to get Watson with punches sometime during the second round and win the fight by technical knockout.

Sean Pierson vs. Jake Ellenberger

Jordan Breen: Ellenberger-Pierson is a compelling matchup  in that both guys are great power wrestlers with sneaky good standup. Ellenberger has more raw power in both respects, however, and should be able to use it to his advantage. If Pierson gets into a slugfest as he did against Matt Riddle, Ellenberger will ruin his night, and possibly even make him puke, as he did to poor Jose Landi-Jons. Even if it's a straight wrestling match, Ellenberger will get powerful takedowns and pound away to a decision.

Freddie DeFreitas: Pierson’s debut against Matthew Riddle was in a word; inspirational, and had it not been for the bias of fan voting, would have rightly earned FOTN honors. A decision to stand toe-to-toe and bang it out against Riddle made for an immensely entertaining 15 minutes of mixed martial arts, however, to do so against someone like Jake Ellenberger is akin to picking up a toaster, bubble bath and heading for the tub -- its straight-up suicide. Ellenberger by KO in round two.

Todd Martin: Ellenberger isn’t flashy, but he’s well rounded, experienced and effective. His wrestling should also be good enough to dictate the way the fight goes. Pierson made a good first UFC impression with a victory against Matt Riddle, but Ellenberger will even Pierson’s record at 1-1.

Pablo Garza vs. Yves Jabouin

Sariahmed: If you were to strictly look at the records of both fighters the pick would be Garza and you wouldn’t think twice about it. But therein lays the problem. At 10-1, Garza’s record is better than Jabouin’s 15-6 mark, but that’s about the only advantage he has here. Garza’s loss to Tiequan Zhang is the most worrisome part for me. Zhang is still very green and he still came in and ran game on Garza. Jabouin’s losses have been to the likes of Mark Hominick and Raphael Assuncao; give me Jabouin here at some point in the first.

Marciniak: Jabouin's offensive wrestling looked good in his last outing, so I'll go out on a limb and say that his takedown defense should also be up to snuff. If the Canadian can keep this one on the feet he's a much more technical and diverse striker than Garza and should batter him around the cage. I have Jabouin by decision.

Knapp: Jabouin proved his worth in his dazzling fight with Hominick. I think Garza is living on borrowed time in the UFC, and the clock may start ticking here. Jabouin's superior standup leads him to an early finish.

Ivan Menjivar vs. Charlie Valencia

Pinheiro: I absolutely love this one. I believe it will be a very close fight. I like Menjivar at bantamweight, but I think Valencia will give him a lot to handle. In the end, I think Menjivar will overcome some tough spots and earn a razor-thin decision.

Loiseleur: Valencia is a great bantamweight talent that I imagine would likely be fantastic at flyweight once Zuffa brings the division to the UFC. For the meantime however, he's yet another solid test for Menjivar, who back in the day was one of the best at 145 before featherweight was a division that few people cared about outside of Shooto. Menjivar has a penchant for "challenging himself" by engaging his opponent in their strengths, which here would likely be brawling and going for big slams. Even if Menjivar does decide to go toe-to-toe with Valencia or is put on the mat, I still see "the Pride of El Salvador" landing harder and more frequently and holding his own on the canvas to take the fight on points.

Critchfield: Menvijar has a wealth of experience, having faced everyone from UFC 129 headliner Georges St. Pierre to bantamweight contender Urijah Faber in his career. This is only his third fight after a lengthy layoff, and it's debatable if he's at the level he was during his heyday. Valencia has fared well against quality competition and should be able to outpoint Menvijar with strikes to win a decision.

Claude Patrick vs. Daniel Roberts

DeFreitas: Patrick enters the bout with Roberts on a 12-fight winning streak that spans nine years. While the Mississauga, Ontario, Canada,- native looked uninspiring in his sophomore appearance and subsequent domination of “Ultimate Fighter” winner against James Wilks, he was able to show off his grappling pedigree to some extent against the Brit. Roberts’ best bet is his vaunted submission game and unfortunately that plays right into Patrick’s strength. Down the road, “The Prince” has to be considered a legitimate contender at 170 and a solid performance against “Ninja” should merit a step up in competition. Patrick by unanimous decision.

Breen: Daniel Roberts deserves considerable dap for improving his game. When he was horrifically starched by John Howard, he looked like he had all the makings of a UFC washout. Instead, he packed up from Oklahoma, hooked up with the Cesar Gracie team, and now he's the owner of three straight Octagon wins. However, Patrick is far more of a seasoned, polished product and will be able to exploit it. Patrick can win a striking battle, but look for his trademark guillotine to come into effect again as he picks up another Octagon W.

Martin: Patrick has the benefit of fighting in his home territory, but I just don’t see him winning a submission grappling battle with Roberts. It’s strength vs. strength, but Roberts has shown a more diverse and dangerous submission game against a higher level of grappler.

Jason MacDonald vs. Ryan Jensen

Sariahmed: This is your prototypical bout to pander to the hometown crowd. MacDonald’s arsenal, while not stellar, is diverse enough to put on a show against Jensen. MacDonald never really got cut for lack of excitement or a lack of effort. He just came up on the short end too many times to superior fighters. As long as MacDonald can fend off takedowns he can stop Jensen in this bout and get the crowd yelling and screaming to start the night.

Marciniak: Out of these two offensive-minded grapplers, I find Jensen to have more liabilities in his defense as well as a smaller gas tank. I think this turns out to be fun, scramble-filled tilt for a round and change until MacDonald subs his opponent in the second period.

Knapp: Despite losing, Jensen was impressive against Court McGee at UFC 121. I see him landing something big on the feet and finishing MacDonald with punches on the ground.